Thursday, December 29, 2011

1248862973.txt

From: Jim Salinger <j.salinger@auckland.ac.nz>
To: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
Subject: Re: ENSO blamed over warming - paper in JGR
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 06:22:53 +1200
Cc: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>, j.renwick@niwa.co.nz, b.mullan@niwa.co.nz, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, James Annan <jdannan@jamstec.go.jp>, Grant Foster <tamino_9@hotmail.com>

<x-flowed>
Good morning all from tomorrowland (Wednesday!)

Gosh, you have all been very busy overnight here. Thank you, and Mike
& I will start wordsmithing our section. We now have (in IPCC terms) a
nice bunch of LA's and CAs for this commentary!

'Talk' to you later!

Jim

Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>:

> Phil
> see also this:
> Trenberth, K. E., and L. Smith, 2009: Variations in the three
> dimensional structure of the atmospheric circulation with different
> flavors of El Ni�o. /J. Climate/, *12*, No. 11, 2978-2991, doi:
> 10.1175/2008JCLI2691.1. [PDF]
> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/TrenberthSmithVTempJCl09.pdf>
> It has tables with relationships with Nino 3.4 and SOI and you can
> see the differences in lead lag e.g. Table 1. SOI leads Nino 3.4 by
> 1 or 2 months typically but as in the 2002 paper, the leads and
> lags vary with Nino index, see also
> Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: Indices of El Ni�o
> evolution. /J. Climate./, *14*, 1697-1701. [Paper(.pdf)
> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/tniJC.pdf>]
> ^*
> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth-publish.html#amscr>
>
> Kevin
>
> Phil Jones wrote:
>>
>> Kevin, Mike et al,
>> Figure 3 in what Kevin just sent is the sort of thing we need to show.
>> On the lags, I think the reason the lag with what Tom did was different is
>> that you used Nino3.4 SST and Tom used SOI. I know people think
>> they are the same thing, but I think SOI lags a little behind 3.4 SST.
>> It would be a useful bit of new science to look at the links between SOI
>> and 3.4 SST, but it shouldn't be part of a comment on what's wrong with the
>> awful paper For that you're going to have to use the Bureau Of Meteorology
>> version of the SOI. These are on this web site
>> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
>> I did check a few years ago and these numbers look pretty much the same
>> as the CRU ones (allowing for the BoM multiplier of 10).
>> When you calculate the SOI you normalize the Darwin
>> and Tahiti series. BoM change the base period with each new year, so
>> don't expect to get exactly the same results as McLean.
>> You have to smooth the SOI series in some way as it is noisy.
>> Their running mean
>> is a lousy filter. I'd recommend using the one we did in Ch 3 of
>> IPCC. It is on
>> p336. The second filter will work fine, with all the months in
>> sequence. It will
>> approximate a 10-12 month filter and won't do anything to the phase. Maybe
>> doing this with SOI and Nino3.4 will show a slight lag between the
>> two - 3 months
>> maybe!
>>
>> Cheers
>> Phil
>>
>>
>> At 15:57 28/07/2009, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>> The leads and lags are analyzed in detail in this paper
>>> Trenberth, K. E., J. M. Caron, D. P. Stepaniak, and S. Worley
>>> 2002: The evolution of ENSO and global atmospheric surface
>>> temperatures <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/2000JD000298.pdf>
>>> /J. Geophys. Res./, *107*, D8, 10.1029/2000JD000298.
>>> and we were not able to reproduce Tom Wigley's result (we tried).
>>> It may depend in indices used. In this paper we also document the
>>> extent to which ENSO contributes to warming overall.
>>> Kevin
>>>
>>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>>> Mike,
>>>> See below for instructions.
>>>>
>>>> Also, just because IPCC (2007, Ch 3) didn't point out the 6/7-month lag
>>>> between the SOI and global temperatures doesn't mean it hasn't been
>>>> known for years. IPCC is an assessment and not a review of everything
>>>> done. If they had even read Wigley (2001) they would have seen this
>>>> lag pointed out. I wasn't the first to do this in 1989 either. I don't
>>>> think Walker was either. I think the first was Hildebrandsson in the
>>>> 1890s. Why does it always go back to a Swede!
>>>>
>>>> file is at ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk <ftp://ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk/>
>>>>
>>>> login anonymously with emails as pw
>>>>
>>>> then go to people/philjones
>>>>
>>>> and you should find santeretal2001.pdf
>>>>
>>>> Cheers
>>>> Phil
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> At 14:08 28/07/2009, Michael Mann wrote:
>>>>> thanks Phil,
>>>>>
>>>>> this is very helpful and reaffirms what we've identified as some
>>>>> of the main points that need to be covered in a formal response.
>>>>> I've taken the liberty of copying in a couple other colleagues
>>>>> who have been looking into this. Grant Foster was the first
>>>>> author on a response to a similarly bad paper by Schwartz that
>>>>> was published some time ago, and has been doing a number of
>>>>> analyses aimed at demonstrating the key problems in McClean et al.
>>>>>
>>>>> I've suggested that Grant sent out a draft of the response when
>>>>> it is ready to the broader group of people who have been
>>>>> included in these exchanges for feedback and potential
>>>>> co-authorship,
>>>>>
>>>>> mike
>>>>>
>>>>> p.s. Santer et al paper still didn't come through in your
>>>>> followup message. Can you post in on ftp where it can be
>>>>> downloaded?
>>>>> On Jul 28, 2009, at 5:15 AM, Phil Jones wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Jim et al,
>>>>>> Having now read the paper in a moment of peace and quiet,
>>>>>> there are a few things
>>>>>> to bear in mind. The authors of the original will have a right
>>>>>> of reply, so need to
>>>>>> ensure that they don't have anything to come back on. From
>>>>>> doing the attached a
>>>>>> year or so ago, there is a word limit and also it is important
>>>>>> to concentrate only
>>>>>> on a few key points. As we all know there is so much wrong with
>>>>>> the paper, it
>>>>>> won't be difficult to come up with a few, but it does need to
>>>>>> be just two or three.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The three aspects I would emphasize are
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 1. The first difference type filtering. Para 14 implies that
>>>>>> they smooth the series
>>>>>> with a 12 month running mean, then subtract the value in Jan
>>>>>> 1980 from that in
>>>>>> Jan 1979, then Feb 1980 from Feb 1979 and so on. As we know
>>>>>> this removes
>>>>>> any long-term trend.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The running mean also probably distorts the phase, so this is
>>>>>> possibly why
>>>>>> they get different lags from others. Using running means also
>>>>>> enhances the
>>>>>> explained variance. Perhaps we should repeat the exercise
>>>>>> without the smoothing.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 2. Figure 4 and Figure 1 show the unsmoothed GTTA series. These
>>>>>> clearly have a
>>>>>> trend. Perhaps show the residual after extracting the ENSO part.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 3. They do the same first difference on the smoothed SOI. The
>>>>>> SOI doesn't explain
>>>>>> the climate jump in the 1976/77 period. Their arguments in para
>>>>>> 30 are all wrong.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> A few minor points
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - there are some negative R*R values just after equation 3.
>>>>>> - I'm sure Tom Wigley wouldn't have proposed El Nino events
>>>>>> occurring after volcanoes!
>>>>>> Attached this paper as well. From a quick read it doesn't
>>>>>> say what is purported - in fact
>>>>>> it seems to show clearly how the analysis should have been done.
>>>>>> - there is a paper by Ben Santer (more recent) where he
>>>>>> applies the same type
>>>>>> of extraction procedure to models. I'll send this separately as
>>>>>> it is large. In case it
>>>>>> is too large here is the reference.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Doutriaux, C., Boyle, J.S.,
>>>>>> Hansen, J.E., Jones, P.D., Meehl, G.A., Roeckner, E., Sengupta,
>>>>>> S. and Taylor K.E., 2001: Accounting for the effects of
>>>>>> volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed
>>>>>> temperature trends. Journal of Geophysical Research 106,
>>>>>> 28033?28059.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Finally I've attached a paper I wrote in 1990, where I did
>>>>>> something similar to
>>>>>> what they did. I looked at residuals from a Gaussian filter, and I added
>>>>>> the smoothed data back afterwards. I was working at the annual timescale
>>>>>> and I did have many more years.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Cheers
>>>>>> Phil
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> At 00:19 25/07/2009, Michael Mann wrote:
>>>>>>> Hi Jim,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Grant Foster ('Tamino') did a nice job in a previous response
>>>>>>> (attached) we wrote to a similarly bad article by Schwartz which got a
>>>>>>> lot of play in contrarian circles.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> since he's already done some of the initial work in debunking this, I
>>>>>>> sent him an email asking hi if we was interested in spearheading a
>>>>>>> similar effort w/ this one.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> let me get back to folks after I've heard back from him, and we can
>>>>>>> discuss possible strategy for moving this forward,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Jul 24, 2009, at 6:11 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Kia orana All from the Tropical South Pacific
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Yes, Phil, a bit like 'A midsummer night's dream!'. and Gavin
>>>>>>>> Tamino's bang up job is great, And good that you go up with stuff on
>>>>>>>> Real Climate, Mike. As Kevin is preoccupied, for the scientific
>>>>>>>> record we need a rebuttal somewhere pulled together. Who wants to
>>>>>>>> join in on the multiauthored effort?? I am happy to coordinate it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Return to 'winter' this evening after enjoying a balmy south east
>>>>>>>> trades and sunny dry 24 C in the Cook Islands.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu> <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> folks, we're going to go up w/ something brief on RealClimate
>>>>>>>>> later today, mostly just linking to other useful deconstructions
>>>>>>>>> of the paper already up on other sites,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:01 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I am tied up next week, but could frame something up the
>>>>>>>>>> following week which , I hope would be multi-authored. It would
>>>>>>>>>> be quite good to have a rebuttal from the same Department at Uni
>>>>>>>>>> of Auckland (which Glenn McGregor of IJC is director of)!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I haven't had tne oportunity to download the text here in the
>>>>>>>>>> Cook Islands, so this would give me the opportunity to do that.
>>>>>>>>>> Who else wants to join in??
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I am on vacation today and don't have the time. I have been on
>>>>>>>>>>> travel the
>>>>>>>>>>> past 4 weeks (including AR5 IPCC scoping mtg); the NCAR summer
>>>>>>>>>>> Colloquium
>>>>>>>>>>> is coming up in a week and then I am off to Oz and NZ for 3 weeks
>>>>>>>>>>> (GEWEX/iLeaps, CEOP) and I have an oceanobs'09 plenary paper to do.
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> a formal comment to JGR seems like a worthwhile undertaking here.
>>>>>>>>>>>> contrarians will continue to cite the paper regardless of
>>>>>>>>>>>> whether or
>>>>>>>>>>>> not its been rebutted, but for the purpose of future scientific
>>>>>>>>>>>> assessments, its important that this be formally rebutted in
>>>>>>>>>>>> the peer-
>>>>>>>>>>>> reviewed literature.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 9:05 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hi All
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks for the pro-activeness. Is there an opportunity to write a
>>>>>>>>>>>>> letter to JGR pointing out the junk science in this??....if it is
>>>>>>>>>>>>> not rebutted, then all sceptics will use this to justify their
>>>>>>>>>>>>> position.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2nd email
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks Kevin, hadn't even noticed that in my terse initial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> skim of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it. yes--that makes things even worse than my initial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> impression.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this is a truly horrible paper. one wonders who the editor was,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and what he/she was thinking (or drinking),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 3:51 PM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I just looked briefly at the paper. Their relationships use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> derivatives
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the series. Well derivatives are equivalent to a high pass
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> filter,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that is to say it filters out all the low frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If one takes y= A sin wt
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and does a differentiation one gets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dy = Aw cos wt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the amplitude goes from A to Aw where w is the frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> = 2*pi/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L where
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L is the period.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the response to this procedure is to reduce periods of 10
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> years by a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> factor of 5 compared with periods of 2 years, or 20 and 50
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> years get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reduced by factors of 10 an 25 relative to two year periods.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> i.e. Their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> procedure is designed to only analyse the interannual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> not the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hi Seth, you always seem to catch me at airports. only got a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> few
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> minutes. took a cursory look at the paper, and it has all the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> worry
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> signs of extremely bad science and scholarship. JGR is a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> legitimate
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> journal, but some extremely bad papers have slipped through
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cracks
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in recent years, and this is another one of them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> first of all, the authors use two deeply flawed datasets that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> understate the warming trends: the Christy and Spencer MSU
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> data and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uncorrected radiosonde temperature estimates. There were a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> series
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> three key papers published in Science a few years ago, by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mears
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> et al,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Santer et al, and Sherwood et al.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> see Gavin's excellent RealClimate article on this:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/et- tu-
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> lt/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> these papers collectively showed that both datasets were
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> deeply
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> flawed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and understate actual tropospheric temperature trends. I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> find it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> absolutely remarkable that this paper could get through a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> serious
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review w/out referencing any 3 of these critical
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> papers-- papers
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whose
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> findings render that conclusions of the current article
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> completely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> invalid!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Christy and Spencer MSU satellite-derived tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimates contained two errors--a sign error and an algebraic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> error--
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had the net effect of artificially removing the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> warming trend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Christy and Spencer continue to produce revised versions of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the MSU
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dataset, but they always seem to show less warming than
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> every other
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> independent assessment, and their estimates are largely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> disregarded by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> serious assessments such as that done by the NAS and the IPCC.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So these guys have taken biased estimates of tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperatures
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that have artificially too little warming trend, and then
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> shown,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> quite
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> unremarkably, that El Nino dominates much of what is left (the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> interannual variability).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the paper has absolutely no implications that I can see at all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> role of natural variability on the observed warming trend
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of recent
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> decades.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> other far more careful analyses (a paper by David Thompson
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of CSU,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Phil Jones, and others published in Nature more than year
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ago)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> used
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> proper, widely-accepted surface temperature data to estimate
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influence of natural factors (El Nino and volcanos) on the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. their analysis was so careful and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clever that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> detected a post-world war II error in sea surface temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> measurements (that yields artificial cooling during the mid
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 1940s)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had never before been discovered in the global surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. needless to say, they removed that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> error too.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the correct record, removing influences of ENSO, volcanoes,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> even
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this newly detected error, reveal that a robust warming of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> global mean
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surface temperature over the past century of a little less
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> than 1C
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> which has nothing to do w/ volcanic influences or ENSO
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences. the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dominant source of the overall warming, as concluded in every
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> legitimate major scientific assessment, is anthropogenic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (human greenhouse gas concentrations w/ some offsetting
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cooling
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> due to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sulphate aerosols).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this later paper provides absolutely nothing to cast that in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> doubt. it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uses a flawed set of surface temperature measurements for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> which the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend has been artificially suppressed, to show that whats
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> left
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> over
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (interannual variability) is due to natural influences. duh!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> its a joke! and the aptly named Mark "Morano" has fallen for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM, Borenstein, Seth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin, Gavin, Mike,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Marc Morano
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is hyping wildly. It's in a legit journal. Whatchya think?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth Borenstein
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associated Press Science Writer
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sborenstein@ap.org <mailto:sborenstein@ap.org>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Associated Press, 1100 13th St. NW, Suite 700,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Washington, DC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 20005-4076
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 202-641-9454
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The information contained in this communication is intended
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the designated recipients named above. If the reader of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notified
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that you have received this communication in error, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that any
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dissemination, distribution or copying of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> strictly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> prohibited. If you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> please
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notify The Associated Press immediately by telephone at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> +1-212-621-1898
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and delete this e-mail. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [IP_US_DISC]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> msk dccc60c6d2c3a6438f0cf467d9a4938
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <McLean2008JD011637.pdf>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 7:57 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Precisely.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mike Mann: You better rush something up on RealClimate. Jim,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Brett, myself and maybe others will have to deal with the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> local
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallout this will cause...oh dear......
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bye the way June was the warmest month on record for the oceans
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> according tro NOAA
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> They use 2 datasets that are deficient in the first place and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then they
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use derivatives: differentiation is a high pass filter, and so
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> they show
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> what we have long known that ENSO accounts for a lot of high
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability. It should not have been published
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> kia orana from Rarotonga
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> How the h... did this get accepted!!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dominion today {24/7/09]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Nature blamed over warming - describing recently published
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JGR by Chris de Freitas, Bob Carter and J McLean, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> including
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> comment by J Salinger "little new"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> McLean J. D., C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter (2009),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Influence
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Res.,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associate Professor Jim Salinger
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> School of Geography and Environmental Science
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of Auckland
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Private Bag 92 019
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Auckland, New Zealand
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tel: + 64 9 373 7599 ext 88473
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>>>>>>>>>>>> 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>>>>>>>>> 865-3663
>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hi Jim,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Grant Foster ('Tamino') did a nice job in a previous response
>>>>>>> (attached) we wrote to a similarly bad article by Schwartz
>>>>>>> which got a lot of play in contrarian circles.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> since he's already done some of the initial work in debunking
>>>>>>> this, I sent him an email asking hi if we was interested in
>>>>>>> spearheading a similar effort w/ this one.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> let me get back to folks after I've heard back from him, and
>>>>>>> we can discuss possible strategy for moving this forward,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Jul 24, 2009, at 6:11 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Kia orana All from the Tropical South Pacific
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Yes, Phil, a bit like 'A midsummer night's dream!'. and Gavin
>>>>>>>> Tamino's bang up job is great, And good that you go up with
>>>>>>>> stuff on Real Climate, Mike. As Kevin is preoccupied, for the
>>>>>>>> scientific record we need a rebuttal somewhere pulled
>>>>>>>> together. Who wants to join in on the multiauthored effort??
>>>>>>>> I am happy to coordinate it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Return to 'winter' this evening after enjoying a balmy south
>>>>>>>> east trades and sunny dry 24 C in the Cook Islands.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu> <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> folks, we're going to go up w/ something brief on
>>>>>>>>> RealClimate later today, mostly just linking to other
>>>>>>>>> useful deconstructions of the paper already up on other
>>>>>>>>> sites,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:01 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I am tied up next week, but could frame something up the
>>>>>>>>>> following week which , I hope would be multi-authored. It
>>>>>>>>>> would be quite good to have a rebuttal from the same
>>>>>>>>>> Department at Uni of Auckland (which Glenn McGregor of IJC
>>>>>>>>>> is director of)!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I haven't had tne oportunity to download the text here in
>>>>>>>>>> the Cook Islands, so this would give me the opportunity to
>>>>>>>>>> do that. Who else wants to join in??
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I am on vacation today and don't have the time. I have
>>>>>>>>>>> been on travel the
>>>>>>>>>>> past 4 weeks (including AR5 IPCC scoping mtg); the NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> summer Colloquium
>>>>>>>>>>> is coming up in a week and then I am off to Oz and NZ for 3 weeks
>>>>>>>>>>> (GEWEX/iLeaps, CEOP) and I have an oceanobs'09 plenary paper to do.
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> a formal comment to JGR seems like a worthwhile undertaking here.
>>>>>>>>>>>> contrarians will continue to cite the paper regardless of
>>>>>>>>>>>> whether or
>>>>>>>>>>>> not its been rebutted, but for the purpose of future scientific
>>>>>>>>>>>> assessments, its important that this be formally rebutted
>>>>>>>>>>>> in the peer-
>>>>>>>>>>>> reviewed literature.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 9:05 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hi All
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks for the pro-activeness. Is there an opportunity to write a
>>>>>>>>>>>>> letter to JGR pointing out the junk science in this??....if it is
>>>>>>>>>>>>> not rebutted, then all sceptics will use this to justify their
>>>>>>>>>>>>> position.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2nd email
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks Kevin, hadn't even noticed that in my terse
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> initial skim of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it. yes--that makes things even worse than my initial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> impression.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this is a truly horrible paper. one wonders who the editor was,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and what he/she was thinking (or drinking),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 3:51 PM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I just looked briefly at the paper. Their relationships use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> derivatives
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the series. Well derivatives are equivalent to a high pass
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> filter,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that is to say it filters out all the low frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If one takes y= A sin wt
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and does a differentiation one gets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dy = Aw cos wt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the amplitude goes from A to Aw where w is the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency = 2*pi/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L where
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L is the period.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the response to this procedure is to reduce periods of 10
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> years by a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> factor of 5 compared with periods of 2 years, or 20
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and 50 years get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reduced by factors of 10 an 25 relative to two year periods.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> i.e. Their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> procedure is designed to only analyse the interannual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> not the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hi Seth, you always seem to catch me at airports.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> only got a few
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> minutes. took a cursory look at the paper, and it has all the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> worry
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> signs of extremely bad science and scholarship. JGR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is a legitimate
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> journal, but some extremely bad papers have slipped
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> through the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cracks
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in recent years, and this is another one of them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> first of all, the authors use two deeply flawed datasets that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> understate the warming trends: the Christy and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Spencer MSU data and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uncorrected radiosonde temperature estimates. There
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> were a series
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> three key papers published in Science a few years
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ago, by Mears
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> et al,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Santer et al, and Sherwood et al.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> see Gavin's excellent RealClimate article on this:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/et-tu-lt/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> these papers collectively showed that both datasets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> were deeply
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> flawed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and understate actual tropospheric temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends. I find it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> absolutely remarkable that this paper could get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> through a serious
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review w/out referencing any 3 of these critical
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> papers-- papers
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whose
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> findings render that conclusions of the current
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> article completely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> invalid!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Christy and Spencer MSU satellite-derived tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimates contained two errors--a sign error and an algebraic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> error--
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had the net effect of artificially removing the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> warming trend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Christy and Spencer continue to produce revised
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> versions of the MSU
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dataset, but they always seem to show less warming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> than every other
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> independent assessment, and their estimates are largely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> disregarded by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> serious assessments such as that done by the NAS and the IPCC.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So these guys have taken biased estimates of tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperatures
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that have artificially too little warming trend, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then shown,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> quite
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> unremarkably, that El Nino dominates much of what is left (the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> interannual variability).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the paper has absolutely no implications that I can see at all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> role of natural variability on the observed warming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend of recent
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> decades.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> other far more careful analyses (a paper by David
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thompson of CSU,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Phil Jones, and others published in Nature more than
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> year ago)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> used
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> proper, widely-accepted surface temperature data to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influence of natural factors (El Nino and volcanos)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> on the surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. their analysis was so careful and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clever that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> detected a post-world war II error in sea surface temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> measurements (that yields artificial cooling during
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the mid 1940s)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had never before been discovered in the global surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. needless to say, they removed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that error too.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the correct record, removing influences of ENSO,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> volcanoes, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> even
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this newly detected error, reveal that a robust warming of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> global mean
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surface temperature over the past century of a little
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> less than 1C
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> which has nothing to do w/ volcanic influences or ENSO
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences. the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dominant source of the overall warming, as concluded in every
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> legitimate major scientific assessment, is anthropogenic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (human greenhouse gas concentrations w/ some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> offsetting cooling
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> due to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sulphate aerosols).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this later paper provides absolutely nothing to cast that in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> doubt. it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uses a flawed set of surface temperature measurements
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for which the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend has been artificially suppressed, to show that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whats left
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> over
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (interannual variability) is due to natural influences. duh!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> its a joke! and the aptly named Mark "Morano" has
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallen for it!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM, Borenstein, Seth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin, Gavin, Mike,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that Marc Morano
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is hyping wildly. It's in a legit journal. Whatchya think?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth Borenstein
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associated Press Science Writer
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sborenstein@ap.org <mailto:sborenstein@ap.org>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Associated Press, 1100 13th St. NW, Suite 700,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Washington, DC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 20005-4076
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 202-641-9454
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The information contained in this communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> intended for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the designated recipients named above. If the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reader of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notified
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and that any
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dissemination, distribution or copying of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> strictly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> prohibited. If you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> please
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notify The Associated Press immediately by telephone at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> +1-212-621-1898
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and delete this e-mail. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [IP_US_DISC]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> msk dccc60c6d2c3a6438f0cf467d9a4938
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <McLean2008JD011637.pdf>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 7:57 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Precisely.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mike Mann: You better rush something up on RealClimate. Jim,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Brett, myself and maybe others will have to deal with
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the local
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallout this will cause...oh dear......
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bye the way June was the warmest month on record for the oceans
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> according tro NOAA
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> They use 2 datasets that are deficient in the first place and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then they
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use derivatives: differentiation is a high pass filter, and so
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> they show
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> what we have long known that ENSO accounts for a lot of high
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability. It should not have been published
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> kia orana from Rarotonga
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> How the h... did this get accepted!!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dominion today {24/7/09]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Nature blamed over warming - describing recently
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> published paper
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JGR by Chris de Freitas, Bob Carter and J McLean,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and including
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> comment by J Salinger "little new"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> McLean J. D., C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter (2009),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Influence
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Res.,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associate Professor Jim Salinger
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> School of Geography and Environmental Science
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of Auckland
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Private Bag 92 019
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Auckland, New Zealand
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tel: + 64 9 373 7599 ext 88473
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX:
>>>>>>>>>>>> (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX:
>>>>>>>>> (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>>>> University of East Anglia
>>>>>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>>>>> <mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
>>>>>> NR4 7TJ
>>>>>> UK
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <Parker-on-Pielke-2009.pdf><Jones_ENSO_1990.pdf><wigley2001.pdf>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>> Professor
>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>
>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>
>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> thanks Phil,
>>>>>
>>>>> this is very helpful and reaffirms what we've identified as some
>>>>> of the main points that need to be covered in a formal response.
>>>>> I've taken the liberty of copying in a couple other colleagues
>>>>> who have been looking into this. Grant Foster was the first
>>>>> author on a response to a similarly bad paper by Schwartz that
>>>>> was published some time ago, and has been doing a number of
>>>>> analyses aimed at demonstrating the key problems in McClean et al.
>>>>>
>>>>> I've suggested that Grant sent out a draft of the response when
>>>>> it is ready to the broader group of people who have been
>>>>> included in these exchanges for feedback and potential
>>>>> co-authorship,
>>>>>
>>>>> mike
>>>>>
>>>>> p.s. Santer et al paper still didn't come through in your
>>>>> followup message. Can you post in on ftp where it can be
>>>>> downloaded?
>>>>> On Jul 28, 2009, at 5:15 AM, Phil Jones wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Jim et al,
>>>>>> Having now read the paper in a moment of peace and quiet,
>>>>>> there are a few things
>>>>>> to bear in mind. The authors of the original will have a right
>>>>>> of reply, so need to
>>>>>> ensure that they don't have anything to come back on. From
>>>>>> doing the attached a
>>>>>> year or so ago, there is a word limit and also it is important
>>>>>> to concentrate only
>>>>>> on a few key points. As we all know there is so much wrong with
>>>>>> the paper, it
>>>>>> won't be difficult to come up with a few, but it does need to
>>>>>> be just two or three.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The three aspects I would emphasize are
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 1. The first difference type filtering. Para 14 implies that
>>>>>> they smooth the series
>>>>>> with a 12 month running mean, then subtract the value in Jan
>>>>>> 1980 from that in
>>>>>> Jan 1979, then Feb 1980 from Feb 1979 and so on. As we know
>>>>>> this removes
>>>>>> any long-term trend.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The running mean also probably distorts the phase, so this is
>>>>>> possibly why
>>>>>> they get different lags from others. Using running means also
>>>>>> enhances the
>>>>>> explained variance. Perhaps we should repeat the exercise
>>>>>> without the smoothing.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 2. Figure 4 and Figure 1 show the unsmoothed GTTA series. These
>>>>>> clearly have a
>>>>>> trend. Perhaps show the residual after extracting the ENSO part.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 3. They do the same first difference on the smoothed SOI. The
>>>>>> SOI doesn't explain
>>>>>> the climate jump in the 1976/77 period. Their arguments in para
>>>>>> 30 are all wrong.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> A few minor points
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - there are some negative R*R values just after equation 3.
>>>>>> - I'm sure Tom Wigley wouldn't have proposed El Nino events
>>>>>> occurring after volcanoes!
>>>>>> Attached this paper as well. From a quick read it doesn't
>>>>>> say what is purported - in fact
>>>>>> it seems to show clearly how the analysis should have been done.
>>>>>> - there is a paper by Ben Santer (more recent) where he
>>>>>> applies the same type
>>>>>> of extraction procedure to models. I'll send this separately as
>>>>>> it is large. In case it
>>>>>> is too large here is the reference.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Santer, B.D., *Wigley*, *T.M.L.*, Doutriaux, C., Boyle, J.S.,
>>>>>> Hansen, J.E., Jones, P.D., Meehl, G.A., Roeckner, E., Sengupta,
>>>>>> S. and Taylor K.E., 2001: Accounting for the effects of
>>>>>> volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed
>>>>>> temperature trends. /Journal of Geophysical Research/ *106*,
>>>>>> 28033--28059.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Finally I've attached a paper I wrote in 1990, where I did
>>>>>> something similar to
>>>>>> what they did. I looked at residuals from a Gaussian filter, and I added
>>>>>> the smoothed data back afterwards. I was working at the annual timescale
>>>>>> and I did have many more years.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Cheers
>>>>>> Phil
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> At 00:19 25/07/2009, Michael Mann wrote:
>>>>>>> Hi Jim,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Grant Foster ('Tamino') did a nice job in a previous response
>>>>>>> (attached) we wrote to a similarly bad article by Schwartz
>>>>>>> which got a lot of play in contrarian circles.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> since he's already done some of the initial work in debunking
>>>>>>> this, I sent him an email asking hi if we was interested in
>>>>>>> spearheading a similar effort w/ this one.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> let me get back to folks after I've heard back from him, and
>>>>>>> we can discuss possible strategy for moving this forward,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Jul 24, 2009, at 6:11 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Kia orana All from the Tropical South Pacific
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Yes, Phil, a bit like 'A midsummer night's dream!'. and Gavin
>>>>>>>> Tamino's bang up job is great, And good that you go up with
>>>>>>>> stuff on Real Climate, Mike. As Kevin is preoccupied, for the
>>>>>>>> scientific record we need a rebuttal somewhere pulled
>>>>>>>> together. Who wants to join in on the multiauthored effort??
>>>>>>>> I am happy to coordinate it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Return to 'winter' this evening after enjoying a balmy south
>>>>>>>> east trades and sunny dry 24 C in the Cook Islands.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> folks, we're going to go up w/ something brief on
>>>>>>>>> RealClimate later today, mostly just linking to other
>>>>>>>>> useful deconstructions of the paper already up on other
>>>>>>>>> sites,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:01 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I am tied up next week, but could frame something up the
>>>>>>>>>> following week which , I hope would be multi-authored. It
>>>>>>>>>> would be quite good to have a rebuttal from the same
>>>>>>>>>> Department at Uni of Auckland (which Glenn McGregor of IJC
>>>>>>>>>> is director of)!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I haven't had tne oportunity to download the text here in
>>>>>>>>>> the Cook Islands, so this would give me the opportunity to
>>>>>>>>>> do that. Who else wants to join in??
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu
>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I am on vacation today and don't have the time. I have
>>>>>>>>>>> been on travel the
>>>>>>>>>>> past 4 weeks (including AR5 IPCC scoping mtg); the NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> summer Colloquium
>>>>>>>>>>> is coming up in a week and then I am off to Oz and NZ for 3 weeks
>>>>>>>>>>> (GEWEX/iLeaps, CEOP) and I have an oceanobs'09 plenary paper to do.
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> a formal comment to JGR seems like a worthwhile undertaking here.
>>>>>>>>>>>> contrarians will continue to cite the paper regardless of
>>>>>>>>>>>> whether or
>>>>>>>>>>>> not its been rebutted, but for the purpose of future scientific
>>>>>>>>>>>> assessments, its important that this be formally rebutted
>>>>>>>>>>>> in the peer-
>>>>>>>>>>>> reviewed literature.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 9:05 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hi All
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks for the pro-activeness. Is there an opportunity to write a
>>>>>>>>>>>>> letter to JGR pointing out the junk science in this??....if it is
>>>>>>>>>>>>> not rebutted, then all sceptics will use this to justify their
>>>>>>>>>>>>> position.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu
>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2nd email
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks Kevin, hadn't even noticed that in my terse
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> initial skim of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it. yes--that makes things even worse than my initial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> impression.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this is a truly horrible paper. one wonders who the editor was,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and what he/she was thinking (or drinking),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 3:51 PM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I just looked briefly at the paper. Their relationships use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> derivatives
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the series. Well derivatives are equivalent to a high pass
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> filter,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that is to say it filters out all the low frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If one takes y= A sin wt
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and does a differentiation one gets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dy = Aw cos wt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the amplitude goes from A to Aw where w is the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency = 2*pi/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L where
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L is the period.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the response to this procedure is to reduce periods of 10
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> years by a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> factor of 5 compared with periods of 2 years, or 20
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and 50 years get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reduced by factors of 10 an 25 relative to two year periods.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> i.e. Their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> procedure is designed to only analyse the interannual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> not the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hi Seth, you always seem to catch me at airports.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> only got a few
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> minutes. took a cursory look at the paper, and it has all the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> worry
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> signs of extremely bad science and scholarship. JGR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is a legitimate
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> journal, but some extremely bad papers have slipped
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> through the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cracks
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in recent years, and this is another one of them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> first of all, the authors use two deeply flawed datasets that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> understate the warming trends: the Christy and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Spencer MSU data and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uncorrected radiosonde temperature estimates. There
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> were a series
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> three key papers published in Science a few years
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ago, by Mears
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> et al,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Santer et al, and Sherwood et al.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> see Gavin's excellent RealClimate article on this:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/et-tu-
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> lt/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> these papers collectively showed that both datasets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> were deeply
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> flawed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and understate actual tropospheric temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends. I find it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> absolutely remarkable that this paper could get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> through a serious
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review w/out referencing any 3 of these critical
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> papers-- papers
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whose
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> findings render that conclusions of the current
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> article completely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> invalid!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Christy and Spencer MSU satellite-derived tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimates contained two errors--a sign error and an algebraic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> error--
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had the net effect of artificially removing the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> warming trend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Christy and Spencer continue to produce revised
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> versions of the MSU
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dataset, but they always seem to show less warming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> than every other
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> independent assessment, and their estimates are largely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> disregarded by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> serious assessments such as that done by the NAS and the IPCC.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So these guys have taken biased estimates of tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperatures
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that have artificially too little warming trend, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then shown,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> quite
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> unremarkably, that El Nino dominates much of what is left (the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> interannual variability).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the paper has absolutely no implications that I can see at all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> role of natural variability on the observed warming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend of recent
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> decades.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> other far more careful analyses (a paper by David
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thompson of CSU,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Phil Jones, and others published in Nature more than
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> year ago)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> used
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> proper, widely-accepted surface temperature data to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influence of natural factors (El Nino and volcanos)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> on the surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. their analysis was so careful and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clever that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> detected a post-world war II error in sea surface temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> measurements (that yields artificial cooling during
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the mid 1940s)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had never before been discovered in the global surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. needless to say, they removed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that error too.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the correct record, removing influences of ENSO,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> volcanoes, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> even
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this newly detected error, reveal that a robust warming of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> global mean
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surface temperature over the past century of a little
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> less than 1C
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> which has nothing to do w/ volcanic influences or ENSO
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences. the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dominant source of the overall warming, as concluded in every
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> legitimate major scientific assessment, is anthropogenic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (human greenhouse gas concentrations w/ some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> offsetting cooling
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> due to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sulphate aerosols).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this later paper provides absolutely nothing to cast that in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> doubt. it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uses a flawed set of surface temperature measurements
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for which the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend has been artificially suppressed, to show that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whats left
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> over
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (interannual variability) is due to natural influences. duh!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> its a joke! and the aptly named Mark "Morano" has
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallen for it!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM, Borenstein, Seth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin, Gavin, Mike,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that Marc Morano
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is hyping wildly. It's in a legit journal. Whatchya think?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth Borenstein
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associated Press Science Writer
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sborenstein@ap.org <mailto:sborenstein@ap.org>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Associated Press, 1100 13th St. NW, Suite 700,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Washington, DC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 20005-4076
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 202-641-9454
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The information contained in this communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> intended for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the designated recipients named above. If the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reader of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notified
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and that any
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dissemination, distribution or copying of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> strictly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> prohibited. If you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> please
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notify The Associated Press immediately by telephone at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> +1-212-621-1898
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and delete this e-mail. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [IP_US_DISC]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> msk dccc60c6d2c3a6438f0cf467d9a4938
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <McLean2008JD011637.pdf>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 7:57 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Precisely.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mike Mann: You better rush something up on RealClimate. Jim,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Brett, myself and maybe others will have to deal with
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the local
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallout this will cause...oh dear......
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bye the way June was the warmest month on record for the oceans
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> according tro NOAA
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> They use 2 datasets that are deficient in the first place and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then they
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use derivatives: differentiation is a high pass filter, and so
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> they show
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> what we have long known that ENSO accounts for a lot of high
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability. It should not have been published
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> kia orana from Rarotonga
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> How the h... did this get accepted!!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dominion today {24/7/09]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Nature blamed over warming - describing recently
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> published paper
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JGR by Chris de Freitas, Bob Carter and J McLean,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and including
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> comment by J Salinger "little new"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> McLean J. D., C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter (2009),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Influence
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Res.,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associate Professor Jim Salinger
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> School of Geography and Environmental Science
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of Auckland
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Private Bag 92 019
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Auckland, New Zealand
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tel: + 64 9 373 7599 ext 88473
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX:
>>>>>>>>>>>> (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX:
>>>>>>>>> (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hi Jim,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Grant Foster ('Tamino') did a nice job in a previous response
>>>>>>> (attached) we wrote to a similarly bad article by Schwartz
>>>>>>> which got a lot of play in contrarian circles.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> since he's already done some of the initial work in debunking
>>>>>>> this, I sent him an email asking hi if we was interested in
>>>>>>> spearheading a similar effort w/ this one.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> let me get back to folks after I've heard back from him, and
>>>>>>> we can discuss possible strategy for moving this forward,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Jul 24, 2009, at 6:11 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Kia orana All from the Tropical South Pacific
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Yes, Phil, a bit like 'A midsummer night's dream!'. and Gavin
>>>>>>>> Tamino's bang up job is great, And good that you go up with
>>>>>>>> stuff on Real Climate, Mike. As Kevin is preoccupied, for the
>>>>>>>> scientific record we need a rebuttal somewhere pulled
>>>>>>>> together. Who wants to join in on the multiauthored effort??
>>>>>>>> I am happy to coordinate it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Return to 'winter' this evening after enjoying a balmy south
>>>>>>>> east trades and sunny dry 24 C in the Cook Islands.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> folks, we're going to go up w/ something brief on
>>>>>>>>> RealClimate later today, mostly just linking to other
>>>>>>>>> useful deconstructions of the paper already up on other
>>>>>>>>> sites,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:01 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I am tied up next week, but could frame something up the
>>>>>>>>>> following week which , I hope would be multi-authored. It
>>>>>>>>>> would be quite good to have a rebuttal from the same
>>>>>>>>>> Department at Uni of Auckland (which Glenn McGregor of IJC
>>>>>>>>>> is director of)!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I haven't had tne oportunity to download the text here in
>>>>>>>>>> the Cook Islands, so this would give me the opportunity to
>>>>>>>>>> do that. Who else wants to join in??
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu
>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I am on vacation today and don't have the time. I have
>>>>>>>>>>> been on travel the
>>>>>>>>>>> past 4 weeks (including AR5 IPCC scoping mtg); the NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> summer Colloquium
>>>>>>>>>>> is coming up in a week and then I am off to Oz and NZ for 3 weeks
>>>>>>>>>>> (GEWEX/iLeaps, CEOP) and I have an oceanobs'09 plenary paper to do.
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> a formal comment to JGR seems like a worthwhile undertaking here.
>>>>>>>>>>>> contrarians will continue to cite the paper regardless of
>>>>>>>>>>>> whether or
>>>>>>>>>>>> not its been rebutted, but for the purpose of future scientific
>>>>>>>>>>>> assessments, its important that this be formally rebutted
>>>>>>>>>>>> in the peer-
>>>>>>>>>>>> reviewed literature.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> mike
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 9:05 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hi All
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks for the pro-activeness. Is there an opportunity to write a
>>>>>>>>>>>>> letter to JGR pointing out the junk science in this??....if it is
>>>>>>>>>>>>> not rebutted, then all sceptics will use this to justify their
>>>>>>>>>>>>> position.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu
>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2nd email
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thanks Kevin, hadn't even noticed that in my terse
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> initial skim of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it. yes--that makes things even worse than my initial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> impression.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this is a truly horrible paper. one wonders who the editor was,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and what he/she was thinking (or drinking),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 3:51 PM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I just looked briefly at the paper. Their relationships use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> derivatives
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the series. Well derivatives are equivalent to a high pass
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> filter,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that is to say it filters out all the low frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If one takes y= A sin wt
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and does a differentiation one gets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dy = Aw cos wt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the amplitude goes from A to Aw where w is the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency = 2*pi/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L where
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> L is the period.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So the response to this procedure is to reduce periods of 10
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> years by a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> factor of 5 compared with periods of 2 years, or 20
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and 50 years get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reduced by factors of 10 an 25 relative to two year periods.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> i.e. Their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> procedure is designed to only analyse the interannual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> not the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hi Seth, you always seem to catch me at airports.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> only got a few
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> minutes. took a cursory look at the paper, and it has all the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> worry
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> signs of extremely bad science and scholarship. JGR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is a legitimate
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> journal, but some extremely bad papers have slipped
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> through the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cracks
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in recent years, and this is another one of them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> first of all, the authors use two deeply flawed datasets that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> understate the warming trends: the Christy and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Spencer MSU data and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uncorrected radiosonde temperature estimates. There
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> were a series
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> three key papers published in Science a few years
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ago, by Mears
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> et al,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Santer et al, and Sherwood et al.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> see Gavin's excellent RealClimate article on this:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/et-tu-lt/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> these papers collectively showed that both datasets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> were deeply
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> flawed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and understate actual tropospheric temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends. I find it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> absolutely remarkable that this paper could get
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> through a serious
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review w/out referencing any 3 of these critical
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> papers--papers
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whose
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> findings render that conclusions of the current
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> article completely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> invalid!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Christy and Spencer MSU satellite-derived tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimates contained two errors--a sign error and an algebraic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> error--
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had the net effect of artificially removing the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> warming trend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Christy and Spencer continue to produce revised
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> versions of the MSU
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dataset, but they always seem to show less warming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> than every other
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> independent assessment, and their estimates are largely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> disregarded by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> serious assessments such as that done by the NAS and the IPCC.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So these guys have taken biased estimates of tropospheric
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperatures
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that have artificially too little warming trend, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then shown,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> quite
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> unremarkably, that El Nino dominates much of what is left (the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> interannual variability).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the paper has absolutely no implications that I can see at all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> role of natural variability on the observed warming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend of recent
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> decades.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> other far more careful analyses (a paper by David
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Thompson of CSU,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Phil Jones, and others published in Nature more than
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> year ago)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> used
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> proper, widely-accepted surface temperature data to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> estimate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influence of natural factors (El Nino and volcanos)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> on the surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. their analysis was so careful and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clever that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> detected a post-world war II error in sea surface temperature
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> measurements (that yields artificial cooling during
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the mid 1940s)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that had never before been discovered in the global surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> temperature record. needless to say, they removed
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that error too.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the correct record, removing influences of ENSO,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> volcanoes, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> even
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this newly detected error, reveal that a robust warming of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> global mean
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surface temperature over the past century of a little
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> less than 1C
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> which has nothing to do w/ volcanic influences or ENSO
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences. the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dominant source of the overall warming, as concluded in every
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> legitimate major scientific assessment, is anthropogenic
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> influences
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (human greenhouse gas concentrations w/ some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> offsetting cooling
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> due to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sulphate aerosols).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this later paper provides absolutely nothing to cast that in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> doubt. it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uses a flawed set of surface temperature measurements
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for which the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trend has been artificially suppressed, to show that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> whats left
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> over
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (interannual variability) is due to natural influences. duh!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> its a joke! and the aptly named Mark "Morano" has
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallen for it!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> m
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM, Borenstein, Seth wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin, Gavin, Mike,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that Marc Morano
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is hyping wildly. It's in a legit journal. Whatchya think?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Seth Borenstein
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associated Press Science Writer
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> sborenstein@ap.org <mailto:sborenstein@ap.org>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Associated Press, 1100 13th St. NW, Suite 700,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Washington, DC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 20005-4076
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 202-641-9454
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The information contained in this communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> intended for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the designated recipients named above. If the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reader of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notified
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and that any
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> review,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dissemination, distribution or copying of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> communication is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> strictly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> prohibited. If you have received this communication in error,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> please
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> notify The Associated Press immediately by telephone at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> +1-212-621-1898
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and delete this e-mail. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [IP_US_DISC]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> msk dccc60c6d2c3a6438f0cf467d9a4938
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <McLean2008JD011637.pdf>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Jul 23, 2009, at 7:57 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Precisely.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mike Mann: You better rush something up on RealClimate. Jim,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Brett, myself and maybe others will have to deal with
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the local
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fallout this will cause...oh dear......
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bye the way June was the warmest month on record for the oceans
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> according tro NOAA
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>>:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> They use 2 datasets that are deficient in the first place and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> then they
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> use derivatives: differentiation is a high pass filter, and so
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> they show
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> what we have long known that ENSO accounts for a lot of high
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequency
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> variability. It should not have been published
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> kia orana from Rarotonga
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> How the h... did this get accepted!!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dominion today {24/7/09]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Nature blamed over warming - describing recently
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> published paper
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JGR by Chris de Freitas, Bob Carter and J McLean,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and including
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> comment by J Salinger "little new"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> McLean J. D., C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter (2009),
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Influence
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Res.,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper at
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Associate Professor Jim Salinger
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> School of Geography and Environmental Science
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of Auckland
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Private Bag 92 019
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Auckland, New Zealand
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tel: + 64 9 373 7599 ext 88473
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX:
>>>>>>>>>>>> (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>>>>>>>>>>>> mann@psu.edu <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________
>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Trenberth
>>>>>>>>>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>>>>>>>>>>> PO Box 3000
>>>>>>>>>>> Boulder CO 80307
>>>>>>>>>>> ph 303 497 1318
>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX:
>>>>>>>>> (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>>>> University of East Anglia Norwich
>>>>>> Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>>>>> <mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
>>>>>> NR4 7TJ
>>>>>> UK
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>> <Parker-on-Pielke-2009.pdf><Jones_ENSO_1990.pdf><wigley2001.pdf>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>> Professor
>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>
>>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>
>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>> University of East Anglia Norwich
>>>> Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk <mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
>>>> NR4 7TJ
>>>> UK
>>>>
>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> ****************
>>> Kevin E.
>>> Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>
>>> Climate Analysis
>>> Section, www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html>
>>> NCAR
>>> P. O. Box
>>> 3000, (303) 497 1318
>>> Boulder, CO
>>> 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)
>>>
>>> Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305
>>>
>>
>> Prof. Phil Jones
>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>> University of East Anglia Norwich
>> Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>> NR4 7TJ
>> UK
>>
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> --
> ****************
> Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
> Climate Analysis Section, www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
> NCAR
> P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318
> Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)
>
> Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305
>
>

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