Thursday, December 29, 2011


From: Pierre Francus <>
To: Jonathan Overpeck <>
Subject: Re: Key new IPCC relevant paleo-science
Date: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 07:03:50 -0400
Cc: Steve Colman <>, Eystein Jansen <>, Jonathan Overpeck <>, Tim Osborn <>, Fortunat Joos <>, David Rind <>, Stefan Rahmstorf <>, Bette Otto-Bleisner <>, "" <>, Ricardo Villalba <>, "" <>, Valerie Masson-Delmotte <>, Dominique Raynaud <>, Keith Briffa <>, Phil Jones <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>, Heinz Wanner <>, Thorsten Kiefer <>, Eric W Wolff <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>, Michael Schulz <>, "" <>, Bette Otto-Bliesner <>, "" <>, Francus Pierre <>, Whitlock Cathy <>, "" <>, Laurent Labeyrie <>, Gavin Schmidt <>

Dear all,

I guess one point that can be outlined for the next IPCC report is about the regional
differences in climate change and variability.

We can see that in the paleo record, and it is very clear from the work of the PAGES "last
2k regional groups".

There is for instance a new Arctic 2k summary in Journal of Paleolimnology (Kauffman et al
2009), and another paper in prep (I guess you are co-author Peck).

All the best


Pierre Francus
Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique
Centre Eau, Terre et Environnement
490 rue de la couronne, Québec, QC G1K 9A9, CANADA
Membre du GEOTOP, Membre associé du CEN, PAGES SSC member
� 1-418-654-3780
Fax: 1-418-654-2600
Personnal web page: [2]
Laboratory : [3]
CEN: [6]
PAGES: [7]
On 21-avr.-09, at 16:42, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:

Thanks Steve and friends I still need to read all the feedback, and appreciate it. I think
you hit on a biggie that paleo provides critical evaluations of model realism. With regard
to the others, the key for inclusion in an IPCC assessment, is to synthesize the published
literature in a way that informs policy makers (the top audience) on what is happening in
the climate system, and more important even what will happen in the he climate system.
Taking the terrific speleothem work for example, what are the key lessons that are NEW and
important to highlight to policy makers? This is the kind of relevant science we need to
compile/highlight. It�s harder than at first glance, but that�s ok quality of relevant
issues is more important than quantity.
Again, thanks all for taking this exercise seriously. Feel free to seek input from
colleagues, although please help us by only sending what you think has a chance of fitting
with the criteria above it is unclear if there will be time for anyone to read all the
strong literature that has come out since mid-2006, so please summarize each key point with
a couple sentence bullet, the complete reference (maybe even send the pdf), and if you
think the key point isn�t easy to understand to a non-paleo person � a little (e.g., para)
supporting text, w/ a key figure if you think it really helps.
Best, peck
On 4/16/09 1:48 PM, "Steve Colman" <[8]> wrote:

Dear Peck and Eystein,
I tend to agree with Stefan that it would be conceptually nice to weave paleo-science
into all the chapters of the next report, but that, as a practical matter, a tighter
focus on paleo results would have more impact. Most people seem to accept that past
history is the only way to assess what the climate system can actually do (e.g., how
fast it can change). However, I think that the fact that reconstructed history provides
the only calibration or test of models (beyond verification of modern simulations) is
In terms of recent or near-future new results, I think that two areas of continental
paleoclimate research are exciting: (1) the new speleothem records, which are producing
extremely high-resolution, well-dated hitories, especially in monsoon areas; and (2) the
network of long-term continental climate histories coming from drill cores in lakes
(Titicaca, Malawi, Bosumtwi, Peten Itza, Qinghai, El' gygytgyn) is reaching the point
where stimulating syntheses may be possible.

Steve Colman
Professor of Geological Sciences and Director,
Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth
RLB 2205 E. 5th St., Duluth, MN 55812; Ph: 218-726-6723; fax -6979
[9] <[10]>

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Co-Director, Institute for Environment and Society
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for Environment and Society
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
Email: [11]
PA Lou Regalado +1 520 792-8712


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