Thursday, December 29, 2011


From: Ben Santer <>
Subject: Re: Good news! Plus less good news
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 11:13:21 -0800

Dear Phil,

Yeah, I had already seen the stuff from McIntyre. Tom Peterson sent it
to me. McIntyre has absolutely no understanding of climate science. He
doesn't realize that, as the length of record increases and trend
confidence intervals decrease, even trivially small differences between
an individual observed trend and the multi-model average trend are
judged to be highly significant. These model-versus-observed trend
differences are, however, of no practical significance whatsoever - they
are well within the structural uncertainties of the observed MSU trends.

It would be great if Francis and Myles got McIntyre's paper for review.
Also, I see that McIntyre has put email correspondence with me in the
Supporting Information of his paper. What a jerk!

I will write to Keith again. The Symposium wouldn't be the same without
him. I think Tom would be quite disappointed.

Have fun in Switzerland!

With best regards,

Ben wrote:
> Ben,
> I'm at an extremes meeting in Riederalp - near Brig. I'm too
> old to go skiing. I'll go up the cable car to see the Aletsch Glacier
> at some point - when the weather is good. Visibility is less than
> 200m at the moment.
> It is good news that Rob can come. I'm still working on
> Keith. It might be worth you sending him another email,
> telling him what he'll be missing if he doesn't go. I think
> Sarah will come, but I've not yet been in CRU when she has.
> With free wifi in my room, I've just seen that M+M have
> submitted a paper to IJC on your H2 statistic - using more
> years, up to 2007. They have also found your PCMDI data -
> laughing at the directory name - FOIA? Also they make up
> statements saying you've done this following Obama's
> statement about openness in government! Anyway you'll likely
> get this for review, or poor Francis will. Best if both
> Francis and Myles did this. If I get an email from Glenn I'll
> suggest this.
> Also I see Pielke Snr has submitted a comment on Sherwood's
> work. He is a prat. He's just had a response to a comment
> piece that David Parker, Tom Peterson and I wrote on a paper
> they had in 2007. Pielke wouldn't understand independence if it
> hit him in the face. Both papers in JGR online. Not worth you
> reading them unless interested.
> Cheers
> Phil

Benjamin D. Santer
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
Tel: (925) 422-3840
FAX: (925) 422-7675


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