Tuesday, December 27, 2011

1200651426.txt

From: "James Hansen" <jhansen@giss.nasa.gov>
To: "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: RE: Dueling climates]
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2008 05:17:06 -0500
Cc: "Kevin Trenberth" <trenbert@ucar.edu>, "Karl, Tom" <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>, "Reto Ruedy" <rruedy@giss.nasa.gov>

Thanks, Phil. Here is a way that Reto likes to list the rankings that come out of our
version of land-ocean index.
rank LOTI
1 2005 0.62C
2 1998 0.57C
2007 0.57C
2002 0.56C
2003 0.55C
2006 0.54C
7 2004 0.49C
i.e., the second through sixth are in a statistical tie for second in our analysis. This
seems useful, and most reporters are sort of willing to accept it. Given differences in
treating the Arctic etc., there will be substantial differences in rankings. I would be a
bit surprised is #7 (2004) jumpred ahead to be #2 in someone else's analysis, but perhaps
even that is possible, given the magnitude of these differences.
Jim

On Jan 18, 2008 5:03 AM, Phil Jones <[1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk> wrote:

Kevin,
When asked I always say the differences are due to the cross-Arctic extrapolation.
Also
as you say there is an issue of SST/MAT coming in from ships/buoys in the Arctic. HadCRUT3
(really HadSST2) doesn't use these where there isn't a 61-90 climatology - a lot of areas
with sea ice in most/some years in the base period. Using fixed SST values of -1.8C is
possible for months with sea ice, but is likely to be wrong. MAT would be impossible to
develop 61-90 climatologies for when sea ice was there. This is an issue that will have to
addressed at some point as the sea ice disappears. Maybe we could develop possible
approaches using some AMIP type Arctic RCM simulations?
Agreeing on the ranks is the hardest of all measures. Uncertainties in global averages
are of the order of +/- 0.05 for one sigma, so any difference between years of less than
0.1
isn't significant. We (MOHC/CRU) put annual values in press releases, but we also put
errors. UK newspapers quote these, and the journalists realise about uncertainties, but
prefer
to use the word accuracy.
We only make the press releases to get the numbers out at one time, and focus
all the calls. We do this through WMO, who want the release in mid-Dec.
There is absolutely no sense of duelling in this. We would be criticised if there
were just
one analysis. The science is pushing for multiple analyses of the same measure - partly
to make sure people remember RSS and not just believe UAH. As we all know, NOAA/NASA
and HadCRUT3 are all much closer than RSS and UAH!
I know we all know all the above. I try to address this when talking to journalists, but
they generally ignore this level of detail.
I'll be in Boulder the week after next at the IDAG meeting (Jan 28-30) and another
meeting Jan30/Feb 1. Tom will be also.
Cheers
Phil
At 02:12 18/01/2008, Kevin Trenberth wrote:

FYI
See the discussion below.� Looks like clarification is called for when these statements
are made that consider the other announcements.

Kevin
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: RE: Dueling climates
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 18:51:13 -0500
From: Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal) [2]<Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com>
To: Kevin Trenberth [3]<trenbert@ucar.edu>, [4]<anthes@ucar.edu>
CC: [5]<kseitter@ametsoc.org>
References: [6]<7C368A942599A944A0C43774DE6412EE044C9964@DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com>
[7]<478F89E4.10405@ucar.edu> [8]<478FBF64.1020500@ucar.edu>

Rick, Kevin,

Attached is the NOAA release.� I believe I had read that the discrepancy with the NASA
("Second hottest year") data/release was also related to how NOAA adjusts for heat
island effects and resiteing of climate stations.� In any event I don't think dueling
climate data serves the broad goals of informing/educating the public and decision
makers about climate change.� I can hear some saying, "If NOAA and NASA can't even
agree what the temperature was last year, how can we believe what they are saying about
the future climate".

Bob


______________________________________________________________________________________

From: Kevin Trenberth [[9]mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu]
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2008 3:50 PM
To: [10]anthes@ucar.edu
Cc: Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal); [11]kseitter@ametsoc.org
Subject: Re: Dueling climates
Hi Rick

My understanding is that the biggest source of this discrepancy is the way the Arctic is
analyzed.� We know that the sea ice was at record low values, 22% lower than the
previous low in 2005.� Some sea temperatures and air temperatures were as much as 7C
above normal.� But most places there is no conventional data.� In NASA they
extrapolate and build in the high temperatures in the Arctic.� In the other records
they do not.� They use only the data available and the rest is missing.�
In most cases the values from recent years are about statistically tied and the ranking
is one that separates values by hundredths of a degree.�
There is no correct way to do this (especially the treatment of missing data), and
different groups do it differently. You typically get different answers if you compute
the hemispheric means and average them vs computing the global mean, because more data
are missing in the southern hemisphere.� Although this can be addressed using remote
sensing in recent times, the climatologies differ.� Ideally one should have a global
analysis with no missing data, and this occurs in the global analyses, but they have
other problems.

Hope this helps
Kevin
Rick Anthes wrote:

Bob-
I saw the NASA one (GISS) but not the NOAA release.� Could you point me toward it?
I see your point.� These preliminary analyses may change with time and the press
releases have not been peer-reviewed.? I am surprised the two estimates disagree this
much, but the difference is probably well within the uncertainty of the estimate of
annual global temperatures.� I'd be interested in Kevin's take on this.

Rick
Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal) wrote:

Rick, Keith,

Don't know if this will come up in the Council or if there is time to even discuss but
I'm sure you've seen the NOAA/NASA press releases and the news stories about the 2007
global temperatures.� NASA says tied for "2nd hottest". . . NOAA says 5th warmest
global and only 10th in US.� Who does this serve but create confusion and add to the
skeptics/denialists argument. . ."They can't even agree on last year's temperatures. .
.why should we believe them?"

Science by press release doesn't serve anyone and certainly not a curious public.�

Role for the AMS?


See you soon.

Bob
Subject:
NASA SCIENTISTS RELEASE 2007 TEMPERATURE DATA
From:
"Maria Frostic" [12]<mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>
Date:
Tue, 15 Jan 2008 18:26:13 -0500
To:
"Maria Frostic" [13]<mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>
To:
"Maria Frostic" [14]<mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>

Maria Frostic� � � � �

1/15/08
(301) 286-9017
2007 Among Hottest Years on Record:
NASA Scientists Release Global Temperature Analysis
An analysis of 2007 global temperature data undertaken by scientists at
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, reveals that 2007 is

tied with 1998 as the second hottest year on record.� The unusual warmth of

2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a
minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean has entered the cool phase of its

El Ni�o-La Ni�a cycle.
The greatest warming in 2007 occurred in the Arctic.� Global warming has a

larger affect in polar areas, as the loss of snow and ice leads to more open

water, which absorbs more sunlight and warmth.� The large Arctic warm

anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observations of record low Arctic sea ice
in September 2007.
The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998,

with 2005 ranking as the hottest.� Barring a large volcanic eruption, NASA

scientists predict that a record global temperature exceeding that of 2005
can be expected within the next two to three years.
A NASA TV Video File on this topic will run January 16th at 9 A.M., 12, 4,

8, and 10 P.M.� EDT on the NASA TV media channel (#103).
Video Highlights:�

* Colorful Visualizations of Global Temperature Data from 1880-2007
* Animations of Unique Perspectives on Ice Albedo
* Animated Earth Displaying Seasonal Landcover and Arctic Sea Ice
* Select Interview Clips with NASA Scientist Dr. James Hansen
For high definition video downloads, print resolution still images, and a
short web video on taking Earth's temperature, visit:

� [15]http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html

NASA Television is carried on an MPEG-2 digital signal accessed via
satellite AMC-6, at 72 degrees west longitude, transponder 17C, 4040 MHz,
vertical polarization. A Digital Video Broadcast (DVB) - compliant
Integrated Receiver Decoder (IRD) with modulation of QPSK/DBV, data rate of
36.86 and FEC <= is needed for reception. NASA TV Multichannel Broadcast
includes Public Services Channel (#101), the Education Channel (#102) and
the Media Services Channel (#103).
For NASA TV information and schedules on the Web, visit: [16]www.nasa.gov/ntv

Subject:
NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
From:
"NOAA News Releases" [17]<Press.Releases@noaa.gov>
Date:
Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:00:00 -0500
To:
"Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" [18]<bob.ryan@nbc.com>
To:
"Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" [19]<bob.ryan@nbc.com>

TO: Ryan, Bob; WRC-TV
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 15, 2008
*** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DC
Contact: John Leslie, 301-713-2087, ext. 174
NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide

� � � � � � The average temperature for the contiguous

U.S. in 2007 is officially the tenth warmest on
record, according to data from scientists at

NOAA�s National Climatic Data Center in

Asheville, N.C. The agency also determined the
global surface temperature last year was the fifth warmest on record.
U.S. Temperature Highlights
* The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2
degrees F; 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 20th
century mean of 52.8 degrees F. NCDC originally
estimated in mid-December that 2007 would end as
the eighth warmest on record, but below-average
temperatures in areas of the country last month
lowered the annual ranking. For Alaska, 2007 was
the 15th warmest year since statewide records began in 1918.
* Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the
contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of
a three decade period in which mean temperatures
for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade.
* For the contiguous U.S., the December 2007 mean
temperature was 33.6 degrees F, near the 20th
century average of 33.4 degrees F. The Southeast
was much warmer than average, while 11 states,
from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast, were cooler than average.
* Warmer-than-average temperatures for December
2007 in large parts of the more heavily populated
eastern U.S. resulted in temperature related
energy demand about 1.9 percent below average for

the nation as a whole, based on NOAA�s

Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index. For
the year, the REDTI estimates that national
residential energy consumption was about 2.5 percent below average.
U.S. Precipitation Highlights December 2007
* December 2007 was wetter than normal for the
contiguous U.S., the 18th wettest December since
national records began in 1895. Thirty-seven
states were wetter, or much wetter, than average.
Only Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Dakota were drier than average.
* Precipitation was much above average in
Washington state, due to a powerful storm that
struck the Pacific Northwest in early December.
Heavy rain and wind gusts greater than 100 mph
caused widespread damage and the worst flooding
in more than a decade in parts of western Oregon
and Washington. Many locations received more than
10 inches of rainfall during the first three days of the month.
* While above-average precipitation in late
November and December led to improving drought
conditions in parts of the Southwest, Southeast,
and New England, more than three-fourths of the
Southeast and half of the West remained in some stage of drought.
Global Highlights
* For December 2007, the combined global land and
ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest on
record (0.72 degrees F or 0.40 degrees C above
the 20th century mean). Separately, the global
December land-surface temperature was the eighth
warmest on record. The most anomalously warm
temperatures occurred from Scandinavia to central Asia.

* La Niña continued to strengthen as ocean

surface temperatures in large areas of the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more
than 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) below average.
The continuation of cooler-than-average
temperatures dampened the global ocean average,
which was the 18th warmest on record for December.
* For 2007, the global land and ocean surface
temperature was the fifth warmest on record.
Separately, the global land surface temperature
was warmest on record while the global ocean
temperature was 9th warmest since records began
in 1880. Seven of the eight warmest years on
record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise
in temperatures of more than 1 degree F (0.6
degrees C) since 1900. Within the past three
decades, the rate of warming in global
temperatures has been approximately three times
greater than the century scale trend.
Note to Editors: Additional information on U.S.
climate conditions in December and for 2007 is
available online at:
[20]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
and [21]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html.
- 30 -

--
******************************************************************

Dr.Richard A. Anthes
Phone: 303-497-1652

President
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000

For delivery via express mail, please use:

1850 Table Mesa Drive
Boulder, CO 80305

*****************************************************************

--
****************
Kevin E.
Trenberth
e-mail: [22]trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis
Section,
[23]
www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
NCAR
P. O. Box
3000,
(303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO
80307
(303) 497 1333 (fax)

Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305

--
****************
Kevin E.
Trenberth
e-mail:
[24]trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis Section,
NCAR

[25]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box
3000,
(303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO
80307
(303) 497 1333 (fax)

Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305

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Subject: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide

Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:00:00 -0500

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Thread-Topic: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
Thread-Index: AchXsSO/aYafvboCRgCNpqPHISPHPg==

From: "NOAA News Releases" <[50]Press.Releases@noaa.gov>

To: "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" <[51]Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com>

TO: Ryan, Bob; WRC-TV
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 15, 2008
*** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DC
Contact: John Leslie, 301-713-2087, ext. 174
NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
The average temperature for the contiguous
U.S. in 2007 is officially the tenth warmest on
record, according to data from scientists at
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in
Asheville, N.C. The agency also determined the
global surface temperature last year was the fifth warmest on record.
U.S. Temperature Highlights
* The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2
degrees F; 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 20th
century mean of 52.8 degrees F. NCDC originally
estimated in mid-December that 2007 would end as
the eighth warmest on record, but below-average
temperatures in areas of the country last month
lowered the annual ranking. For Alaska, 2007 was
the 15th warmest year since statewide records began in 1918.
* Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the
contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of
a three decade period in which mean temperatures
for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade.
* For the contiguous U.S., the December 2007 mean
temperature was 33.6 degrees F, near the 20th
century average of 33.4 degrees F. The Southeast
was much warmer than average, while 11 states,
from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast, were cooler than average.
* Warmer-than-average temperatures for December
2007 in large parts of the more heavily populated
eastern U.S. resulted in temperature related
energy demand about 1.9 percent below average for
the nation as a whole, based on NOAA's
Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index. For
the year, the REDTI estimates that national
residential energy consumption was about 2.5 percent below average.
U.S. Precipitation Highlights December 2007
* December 2007 was wetter than normal for the
contiguous U.S., the 18th wettest December since
national records began in 1895. Thirty-seven
states were wetter, or much wetter, than average.
Only Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Dakota were drier than average.
* Precipitation was much above average in
Washington state, due to a powerful storm that
struck the Pacific Northwest in early December.
Heavy rain and wind gusts greater than 100 mph
caused widespread damage and the worst flooding
in more than a decade in parts of western Oregon
and Washington. Many locations received more than
10 inches of rainfall during the first three days of the month.
* While above-average precipitation in late
November and December led to improving drought
conditions in parts of the Southwest, Southeast,
and New England, more than three-fourths of the
Southeast and half of the West remained in some stage of drought.
Global Highlights
* For December 2007, the combined global land and
ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest on
record (0.72 degrees F or 0.40 degrees C above
the 20th century mean). Separately, the global
December land-surface temperature was the eighth
warmest on record. The most anomalously warm
temperatures occurred from Scandinavia to central Asia.
* La Ni�a continued to strengthen as ocean
surface temperatures in large areas of the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more
than 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) below average.
The continuation of cooler-than-average
temperatures dampened the global ocean average,
which was the 18th warmest on record for December.
* For 2007, the global land and ocean surface
temperature was the fifth warmest on record.
Separately, the global land surface temperature
was warmest on record while the global ocean
temperature was 9th warmest since records began
in 1880. Seven of the eight warmest years on
record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise
in temperatures of more than 1 degree F (0.6
degrees C) since 1900. Within the past three
decades, the rate of warming in global
temperatures has been approximately three times
greater than the century scale trend.
Note to Editors: Additional information on U.S.
climate conditions in December and for 2007 is
available online at:
[52]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
and [53]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html .
- 30 -

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [54]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

1. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
2. mailto:Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com
3. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
4. mailto:anthes@ucar.edu
5. mailto:kseitter@ametsoc.org
6. mailto:7C368A942599A944A0C43774DE6412EE044C9964@DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com
7. mailto:478F89E4.10405@ucar.edu
8. mailto:478FBF64.1020500@ucar.edu
9. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
10. mailto:anthes@ucar.edu
11. mailto:kseitter@ametsoc.org
12. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
13. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
14. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
15. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html
16. http://www.nasa.gov/ntv
17. mailto:Press.Releases@noaa.gov
18. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
19. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
20. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
21. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html
22. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
23. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
24. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
25. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
26. http://rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com/
27. http://3.159.183.51/
28. http://DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com/
29. http://useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com/
30. http://3.44.150.24/
31. http://rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com/
32. http://int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net/
33. http://3.159.232.67/
34. http://useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com/
35. http://ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net/
36. http://3.159.232.67/
37. http://int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net/
38. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
39. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/
40. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/
41. http://140.90.121.157/
42. http://ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net/
43. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
44. http://HCHB-WIRNS.noaa.gov/
45. http://170.110.255.148/
46. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/
47. mailto:0JUP00MVJBIAQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov
48. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
49. mailto:0JUP00MZVBISQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov
50. mailto:Press.Releases@noaa.gov
51. mailto:Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com
52. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
53. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html
54. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk

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