Friday, December 23, 2011

1196872660.txt

From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: Even more on Loehle's 2000 year climate analysis]
Date: Wed, 05 Dec 2007 11:37:40 -0500
Reply-to: mann@psu.edu

well put Phil,
I think you've put your finger right on it. JGR-Atmospheres has been publishing some truly
awful papers lately; we responded (Gavin, me, James Annan) to the awful Schwartz
sensitivity estimate paper, but there are so many other bad papers that are appearing there
(Chylak, etc.) that its just impossible to respond to them all.
I hadn't seen this latest one though. McKitrick and Michaels team up again, wow! maybe
McKitrick has figured ou the difference between radians and degrees this time!
talk to you later,
mike
Phil Jones wrote:

Mike,
Also I see him writing things - then people saying you should
write this up for a paper, as though it can be knocked up in an
afternoon. He realises he can't do this - as it takes much longer.
Then we wastes more and more time opening up new threads.
He doesn't seem clever enough to realise this.
Gavin and Rasmus have seen the attached piece of garbage!
UAH is correct, therefore the land surface must be wrong.
Let's adjust it for a dodgy reason - ah, it now agrees with UAH.
Let's forget that the land now disagrees with the ocean surface.
If only I'd thought of that first, I could have not bothered with
the awful analysis. If only I'd just believed RSS in the first place.
Cheers
Phil
At 15:16 05/12/2007, you wrote:

HI Phil,
thanks--thats good.
Re, Loehle, McIntyre. Funny--w/ each awful paper E&E publishes, McIntyre realizes that
it compromises the integrity of his own "work" even further. He can't distance himself
from E&E much as he'd like to. He also seems to be losing lots of credibility now w/
all but his most loyal followers, which is good to see...
mike
Phil Jones wrote:

Mike,
Yes the 1990 graphic is in an Appendix. The last few are being regularly hassled
by Thorsten. The guy from EPRI (Larry) really wants something submitted soon.
So working here to get something in by end of Jan. Keith is going to get
it fast-tracked through the Holocene - well that's the plan.
The Loehle paper is awful as you know. So is another article on the IPCC process
in E&E. I did look at Climate Audit a week or two back - I got the impression
that McIntyre is trying to distance himself from some of these E&E articles by
saying we have to be equally skeptical about them as well.
Cheers
Phil

At 14:00 04/12/2007, you wrote:

Hey Phil,
thanks--nice coincidence in timing. So the 1990 graphic will be discussed in this review
paper, right? Perfect, I'll let Gavin know.
Will look into the AGU fellowship situation ASAP.
I don't read E&E, gives me indigestion--I don't even consider it peer-reviewed science,
and in my view we should treat it that way. i.e., don't cite, and if journalists ask us
about a paper, simply explain its not peer-reviewed science, and Sonja B-C, the editor,
has even admitted to an anti-Kyoto agenda!
I do hope that Wei-Chyung pursues legal action here.
So didn't see this recent paper, nor have I heard about the IJC paper, Christy and
Spencer continue to lose more and more scientific credibility with each awful paper they
publish.
Gavin is planning to do something on the Loehle paper on RealClimate, I'm staying away
from it. I have a revised set of hemispheric reconstructions which I'll send you soon,
its basically what I showed at AGU last year. Submitted to PNAS--more soon on that,
mike
Phil Jones wrote:

Mike,
Some text came last night from Caspar. Keith/Tim writing their parts still.
I have text from Francis, so almost all here now. Still need to find some time
- maybe the Christmas/New Year break here - to put it all together. There
is so much else going on here at the moment with other papers, it will
be hard to find some time. I wish they had all responded much sooner!
As for AGU - just getting one of their Fellowships would be fine.
I take it you've seen the attached in E&E. I've not heard any more from
Wei-Chyung in the past couple of months. I'm working on a paper
on urbanization. I can show China is hardly affected. Will send for you
to look over when I have it in a form that is sendable. Would appreciate
your thoughts on how I will have said things.
Have another awful pdf of a paper accepted in IJC !! It ws rejected
by all three reviewers for GRL! It is by Douglass, Christy , Singer et al
- thus you'll know what it is on.
Have booked flights for Tahiti in April, just need to do the hotel now.
Cheers
Phil
Cheers
Phil
At 02:07 04/12/2007, you wrote:

Hi Phil,
I hope things are going well these days, and that the recent round of attacks have died
down. seems like some time since I've heard from you.
Please see below: Gavin was wondering if there is any update in status on this?
By the way, still looking into nominating you for an AGU award, I've been told that the
Ewing medal wouldn't be the right one. Let me know if you have any particular options
you'd like me to investigate...
thanks,
mike
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: Even more on Loehle's 2000 year climate analysis
Date: 03 Dec 2007 20:59:58 -0500
From: Gavin Schmidt [1]<gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>
To: Michael E. Mann [2]<mann@psu.edu>
References: [3]<3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com>
[4]<3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com>
[5]<3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com>
[6]<3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com>
[7]<3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com>
[8]<3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com>
[9]<3.0.3.32.20071203141259.0126c33c@mail.skybest.com>
[10]<475457F3.9070102@meteo.psu.edu>
this reminds me. What's the status of Phil Jones and Caspar's
investigation of the IPCC90 curve? Phil wanted us to hold off for some
reason, but is that done with?

That's a great story that needs to be told.

Gavin

On Mon, 2007-12-03 at 14:24, Michael E. Mann wrote:
> thanks Eric,
>
> That's great. I've again copied in Gavin so that he has this info
too.
>
> Will keep you in the loop!
>
> mike
>
> Eric Swanson wrote:
> > Hi Mike,
> >
> > I do hope you all are able to put this all together.
> > There were several comments on CA about RealClimate,
suggesting
that
> > RC wouldn't say anything, as E&E publication has such a
bad
rap.
> >
> > Perhaps my biggest complaint was also one mentioned by another
> > poster
> > on CA. I don't like using a simple linear interpolation between
> > data points for these series where there are many years
between
> > samples.
> > Here's the other fellow's comments:
> >
> >

[11]
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162478
> >


[12]
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162654
> >

[13]
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162665
> >
> > I would go further than that. These data sets represent
samples
of
> > time records. The sampling does not produce a value for a
single
> > year.
> > Rather, each sample represents some number of years of the
variable
> > as averaged in the process of collecting the material to be
> > analyzed.
> >
> > Consider an ocean sediment core, such as Keigwin's data. The
> > subcores
> > are sampled every 1.0 cm. Assume the material is taken with a
device
> > that
> > collects mud from a 0.4 cm area along the core. Thus, the
sample
> > would
> > contain 4/10 of the material deposited at that 1 cm per sample
rate
> > of
> > change in time. If the age/depth model at that point yields a
100
> > year
> > per cm rate, then the sample would represent an average over
40
> > years.
> > Simple linear interpolation assumes a continuously varying
change
> > between
> > the points, while the sampling process would give a brief 40
year
> > value
> > with the other 60 years being unknown. What if the entire cm
of
the
> > core
> > were analyzed? One would not know unless one had contacted
each
> > research
> > group that did the analysis and requested more information
than
that
> > which
> > might be found in the published reports.
> >
> > NOTE: I looked at Keigwin's data when I wrote a comment on
Loehle's
> > 2004 paper
> >
> > Comments on "Climate change: detection and attribution of
trends
> > from long-term
> > geologic data" by C. Loehle [Ecological Modelling 171 (4)
(2004)
> > 433-450],
> > Ecological Modelling 192 (2006) 314-316
> >
> > You may add my name to the list for what it's worth.
> >
> > Best Regards,
> >
> > Eric Swanson
> > --------------------------------------------------------------
> > At 01:18 PM 12/3/07 -0500, you wrote:
> > >>>>
> > Eric--this is
great, thanks for all of the info. I've taken
> > the liberty of
forwarding to Gavin, as we're thinking of
> > doing an RC
post on this, and this would be very useful. We
> > should
certainly list you as a "co-author" on this, if thats
> > ok w/ you?
> >
> > Looking
forward
to hearing what else you find here!
> >
> > mike
> >
> >
>
>
>
> --
> Michael E. Mann
> Associate Professor
> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>
> Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
> 503 Walker
Building
FAX: (814) 865-3663
> The Pennsylvania State University
email: [14]mann@psu.edu
> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>
>

[15]
http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
>


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker
Building
FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University
email: [16]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013


[17]
http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm


Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [18]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker
Building
FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University
email: [19]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[20]
http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [21]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker
Building
FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University
email: [22]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[23]
http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm


Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [24]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [25]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[26]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

References

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1. mailto:gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov
2. mailto:mann@psu.edu
3. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com
4. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com
5. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com
6. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com
7. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com
8. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com
9. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071203141259.0126c33c@mail.skybest.com
10. mailto:475457F3.9070102@meteo.psu.edu
11. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162478
12. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162654
13. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162665
14. mailto:mann@psu.edu
15. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
16. mailto:mann@psu.edu
17. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
18. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
19. mailto:mann@psu.edu
20. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
21. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
22. mailto:mann@psu.edu
23. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
24. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
25. mailto:mann@psu.edu
26. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

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