Wednesday, December 21, 2011

1160140264.txt

From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>
Subject: Re: VERY URGENT HELP NEEDED TO ADDRESS FINAL DRAFT PROBLEM
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2006 09:11:04 -0600

Hi Keith and Eystein - thanks for the timely and helpful (very) feedback, Keith. Your
suggestions for 4 and 5 seem fine, and I wonder only about 6. I too am not sure where the
final clause came from, but I'll guess it was a suggestion of Stefan's that then stood the
text of time. In the spirit of trying hard not to change the meaning of bullets in the ES
from what the LA team agreed to in Bergen, what about changing this clause in the ES to
read "natural recovery", i.e.:

and it is very unlikely that this warming was merely a natural recovery from the pre-20th
century cold period."

This takes away the ambiguity, and does serve to address a widely held misconception
outside of our community - or at least to phrase the issue in terms that some might find
more useful.

If we keep this phrase, then I would suggest restating the entire ES sentence at the end of
6.6.3.

Is this ok? Again, I'm motivated by our team agreement - I do think we could delete this
phrase since it's more repetitive than new meaning, but would rather not unless it really
does not work. Personally, I like it as modified above, because it hammers the important
point from a slightly different perspective - one that seems to be on the minds of the
public still.

Thanks, both, for letting me know what you think fast.

best, peck

Hi Peck and Eystein
In response to Points 4-6
4. Add the following after past 1300 years. on line 13 page Y-33
"Considering the recent instrumental and longer proxy evidence together, it is very
likely that average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th
century were warmer than any other 50-year period in the last 500 years. "
Do not put anything in Box 6.4 which is written frolm the reverse perspective - evidence
of medieval period not good enough to say warmer than now. Also confuses statements
about 500 years and longer (1000 year ) Medieval ,time.
5. The person who says this has not read the text - see lines 28-33 on Y-32 where I
think this is well covered.
6. If you read the text on lines 1-10 of PAGE Y-38 I think this meaning is clearly
conveyed. It is not in the same words -but easily supports the ES statement.
HOWEVER, I do not like the last part of the statement (and not sure where this came
from) because it is ambiguous and anyway implied by prior statement. I strongly urge you
to remove the section
"and it is very unlikely that this warming was merely a recovery from the pre-20th
century cold period."
These would sort things out I believe
cheers
Keith
At 19:26 05/10/2006, you wrote:

Hi Keith and Tim - we just got the attached consistency feedback doc from the TSU, and
I've added my thoughts in red. We need your feedback on items 4-6 REALLY FAST. Tim, if
Keith's not around to help, please do the job - the TSU has zero time to give us.
I think the solutions to #5 and 6 are easy as I suggested (although I don't have
confirmation from Susan or Martin that we can just do as I suggest, but it seems logical
to me - if you can suggest an even better solution, pls do.
I'll send the official chap 6 final draft text next - at least as it stands today.
thanks for dealing with this, perhaps before you go to sleep this evening.
Best, Peck
--
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

--

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences

Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

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