To: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>, Jonathan Overpeck <firstname.lastname@example.org>
Subject: Re: Climate Audit
Date: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 13:48:31 +0000
Cc: Keith Briffa <email@example.com>
A lot of good points raised by the horizontal Eystein. Keith is
hoping to do something on the recent tree growth issue.
What this sad crowd (nice words - I'll use the phrase again) don't
realise is that the satellite data now agree with the surface. This is
said in Ch 3 and will come home more forcefully once the CCSP
report on vertical temperature trends comes out. This should be
April or May according to Tom Karl who is overseeing it all. I say
should as it apparently has to be approved by the White House!
Peck will know why this is and the expertise of the people doing
I can say for certain (100% - not any probable word that IPCC
would use) is that the surface temperature data are correct.
McIntyre is determined and the blog does influence people, unfortuately
the media. As you say as issues are partially closed, they will move on
At 12:50 09/03/2006, Eystein Jansen wrote:
>Hi Phil, thanks for the greetings. The back is status quo-like, so today
>the neurosurgeons concluded I need a surgery to take care of the hernia
>that creates the pains. Will take place in a week or two, and I will be
>out of work for a month afterwards, but should be up and going in good
>time for Wengen and for LA4.
>One side effect of being stranded and in horisontal working mode is more
>time to browse the net, thus I have monitored the Climate Audit page.
>Looking at the discussions after the NAS panel meeting we should expect
>focus now to be sidetracked from PC-analyses and over to the issue of bad
>proxies and divergence from temperature in the last 50 years. Thus this
>last aspect needs to be tackled more candidly in AR4 than in the SOD, and
>we need to discuss how to do this, soon. The Key expert here is Keith and
>I guess we should be able to assess the situation based on his and
>D�Arrigo�s work and the expertise at hand.
>The rather sad crowd of followers who put their confused ideas onto the
>blog is one thing - they can�t make up their mind if tree-rings are
>correct over the past 50 years and the Instrumental data wrong (UHI story)
>or vice versa. The more important aspect is that the blog is now used a
>lot by media and McIntyre has immediate access to the international media
>in the form of being one of the key players in terms of paleoclimate,
>ironocally enough. He is extremely determined, has his skewed viewpoints
>and is of course very pompous, but the blog is effective for his goals.
>At 08:39 +0000 09-03-06, Phil Jones wrote:
>> I should stop looking at these sites. Was just looking during a
>> break yesterday pm.
>> Spent part of yesterday going through the TS and SPM and
>> sent some comments in, only to be told they weren't specific
>> enough by Susan. Probably the last time I waste my time
>> doing that. I knew she had an agenda, but I hadn't fully
>> realised how extensive it was.
>> We need to revisit AR4 at some stage. Let's talk about this
>> over some beers at the Wengen meeting - to decide if we do
>> anything at the Bergen one. I'm sure Susan is aware of most
>> of the issues....... well, I'd like to believe that. The trouble is
>> that the blog sites keep promoting the same arguments, it just
>> doesn't seem to matter how we try and respond - they are oblivious
>> to it. One issue we could discuss is data availability. Keith says
>> you're going to make all your series (in the plots available). This
>> should be across all chapters if done. This is a load of work, but
>> they'll just say it isn't enough. So, impossible to win, or even get a
>> Keith is hoping to do something re Rosanne, but like all
>> of us we're not finding the time. There are a load of things
>> we want to write, but responding (even reading) all this
>> rubbish takes time.
>> Hope you're better Eystein ! Looking forward to Bergen - partly
>> as we're closer then to seeing the back of IPCC!
>>At 23:15 08/03/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>Hi Phil - I'm not a big blog guy - not enough time, nor good enough
>>>internet here. So, I'm not following the audit junk. Am I nuts?
>>>And, I'm not sure I understand what's going to happen when the AR4 comes
>>>out. Should we have some discussion on this - as a broader group w/
>>>Susan - in Norway? Or is some other strategy advised?
>>>I'm hearing about D'Arrigo's splash from other sources (Richard Alley) -
>>>hope Keith et al., have good counter arguments.
>>>> I guess you've seen the site in the last day or so.
>>>> Did you give them your CC paper to post up and attack?
>>>> They clearly shouldn't have it.
>>>> There are some funny things (#32 on the verification r*r revealed),
>>>> but much has gone beyond that.
>>>> D'Arrigo's Cherry Pie - where did Briffa graduate from!
>>>> Keith's web page isn't up-to-date as he's a professor now!
>>>> I'm the greatest hoarder of climate information!
>>>> It's the pages on Mike that are no longer funny.
>>>> Peck - do you think Susan really understands what will
>>>> happen when the AR4 comes out?
>>>> I heard from Jerry North thinks they will have a report
>>>> from the NAS meeting by April.
>>>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>>University of East Anglia
>>>>Norwich Email firstname.lastname@example.org
>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>University of Arizona
>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich Email email@example.com
>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
>Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email firstname.lastname@example.org