Monday, December 19, 2011

1140009927.txt

From: Fortunat Joos <joos@climate.unibe.ch>
To: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Millennium Simulations
Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 08:25:27 +0100
Cc: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>, Anders Levermann <levermann@pik-potsdam.de>, Eva Bauer <eva.bauer@pik-potsdam.de>, plattner@climate.unibe.ch, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, oyvind.paasche@bjerknes.uib.no

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O.k. EMIC caption noted. Can go with the 1500-1899 ref period.

Stefan, Anders, and Eva can you provide me the appropriate references
for your models and the official names.

Regards, Fortunat

Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
> Hi Tim and Fortunat: This looks nice (thanks) and my slight bias is that
> we should include the Climber3a results. What do you think, Fortunat? I
> think Stefan likes it based on his email.
>
> Regarding the reference period, I would side w/ Tim and Keith on using
> 1500-1899. We need to use the same ref period for everything on these
> two figs (obs and forcing/simulations), and I think the EMIC panel still
> convey's the main message. Keith/Tim/Fortunat - we have to resolve this
> FAST, so please weigh in more on this issue. Thanks.
>
> Regarding captions, yes, you should do all but the EMICS, and you should
> make sure you send to Stefan so he can help make sure it makes sense
> (e.g., the red/grey shading). We have asked Fortunat to do the EMIC
> caption. Can you do this Fortunat? Thanks.
>
> Best, Peck
>
>
>
>
>> Dear all,
>>
>> please see the attached diagram (both the same, PDF or GIF) with all
>> three EMICs on now. Climber3a seems to lie between Climber2 and
>> Bern2.5CC mostly. Does it add to the message of the figure to use all
>> three? If so, please use this version from now on, for drafting
>> captions etc.
>>
>> Nobody said much about the previous version, so hopefully this
>> indicates general agreement! I didn't show the "Bard08" runs, because
>> they were so close to the runs I have labelled "WLS", but of course in
>> those runs the pre-1610 solar forcing is Bard08 - so maybe the labels
>> should be altered to somehow indicate them, or this could just be
>> stated in the caption.
>>
>> Am I right that Keith and I need to provide an updated caption for
>> panels (a)-(d), but that someone else will write a caption for the
>> EMIC panel (e)?
>>
>> Cheers
>>
>> Tim
>>
>> At 19:20 13/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>
>>> Hi Anders and Tim - It could be too late, but this is up to Tim. Can
>>> you get these data onto the new EMIC panel? I think it'd be worth
>>> it, but only if you and Keith can get everything else done first.
>>> Best make sure you have all the data needed, just in case.
>>>
>>> thanks Anders too.
>>>
>>> best, peck
>>>
>>>> X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2
>>>> Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 11:20:14 +0100
>>>> From: Anders Levermann <Anders.Levermann@pik-potsdam.de>
>>>> Organization: PIK
>>>> X-Accept-Language: en-us, en
>>>> To: Fortunat Joos <joos@climate.unibe.ch>
>>>> Cc: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>,
>>>> Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>,
>>>> Anders Levermann <levermann@pik-potsdam.de>,
>>>> Eva Bauer <eva.bauer@pik-potsdam.de>,
>>>> plattner@climate.unibe.ch,
>>>> Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>,
>>>> Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
>>>> Subject: Re: Millennium Simulations
>>>>
>>>> Dear all,
>>>>
>>>> here is the data from the Climber-3alpha simulations. I know they
>>>> are too late, but
>>>> perhaps there is still a way to include them. The structure of the
>>>> files is the
>>>> same as Eva's. The file names correspond to the ones you gave in the
>>>> simulation
>>>> protocol.
>>>>
>>>> Cheers,
>>>> Anders
>>>>
>>>> Fortunat Joos wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Dear all,
>>>>>
>>>>> Please find attached an update of the simulation protocol and input
>>>>> data description.
>>>>>
>>>>> Kasper Plattner pointed out that I forgot the obvious. We need of
>>>>> course a control run to correct for potential model drift. The
>>>>> readme file has been modified accordingly adding a brief
>>>>> description on how the control should be done.
>>>>>
>>>>> I am looking forward to any additional comments. Hope everything is
>>>>> clear.
>>>>>
>>>>> Kasper is currently working to perform the simulation with the
>>>>> Bern2.5CC.
>>>>>
>>>>> Regards, Fortunat
>>>>>
>>>>> Fortunat Joos wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Dear all,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I have now compiled the input data set and written a protocol how
>>>>>> to perform the runs. It seems to me that it would make sense if we
>>>>>> perform the simulations first with the Bern Model and with the
>>>>>> Climber 2 model. We can then still decide if we need Climber 3.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Please let me know if there are any questions.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I could also provide files where the radiative forcing of solar,
>>>>>> volcanoes and non-CO2-anthropogenic has been added together.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> With best wishes,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Fortunat
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Dear Eva and Fortunat - thanks for working on getting things
>>>>>>> moving. It seems that the detailed forcing recommendations laid
>>>>>>> out below by Fortunat build nicely on what Eva first suggested,
>>>>>>> and that going with the forcing series suggested below by
>>>>>>> Foortunat (and the 6 simulations) is going to be just right for
>>>>>>> the IPCC AR4 Chap 6 needs. Does everyone agree?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Thanks Fortunat for preparing/sharing the standard forcing series.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Best, peck
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Dear Eva,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> We are working on the forcing series and they should be ready by
>>>>>>>> the end of the week. Stefan assured us that you can run this
>>>>>>>> within a few hours.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> What we are preparing are the following series of radiative
>>>>>>>> forcing in W/m2:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> a) RF from atmospheric constituents (well-mixed GHGs (CO2, CH4,
>>>>>>>> N2O, many Halocarbons) tropo and strato Ozone, various
>>>>>>>> anthropogenic aerosols) as used in the Bern CC TAR version and
>>>>>>>> the TAR (see Joos et al., GBC, 2001; pdf is on my homepage and
>>>>>>>> TAR appendix).
>>>>>>>> b) volcanic from Crowley, Sci, 2000
>>>>>>>> c) solar based on Lean and Bard et al.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> For the solar we will prepare 3 combinations:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> c1) original serie from Lean (2005) provided to you already
>>>>>>>> c2) Bard et al., Be-10 record linearly scaled to match the
>>>>>>>> Maunder Minimum Average of Lean-AR4
>>>>>>>> c3) Bard et al., Be-10 scaled to a MM reduction of 0.25 permil,
>>>>>>>> i.e. the low case in the Bard et, Tellus, publication
>>>>>>>> corresponding to the Lean et al, 1995 scaling
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> For the RF by atmospheric components two cases are foreseen:
>>>>>>>> a1) standard case with reconstructed evolution over past 1150 years
>>>>>>>> a2) RF kept at 1765 value after 1765, i.e. a simulation with
>>>>>>>> natural forcings only.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> This will yield in total 6 simulations 3 over the full length
>>>>>>>> from 850 AD to 2000 and 3 brach-off simulatons from 1765 with
>>>>>>>> natural only forcing.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> An important point in IPCC is that things are published,
>>>>>>>> consistent among chapters, and it helps if approaches are
>>>>>>>> tracable to earlier accepted and approved IPCC work. The
>>>>>>>> arguments for these series are as follows:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> a) Considering as many components relevant for RF as possible
>>>>>>>> (more than just CO2). The series are fully compatible with TAR
>>>>>>>> and that the setup is tracable to the TAR for the industrial era
>>>>>>>> increase. The same series will be used in the projection chapter
>>>>>>>> 10 for the SRES calculation
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> b) volcanic: a widely cited record
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> c) solar: c1) and c3) are published series; c2 follows the same
>>>>>>>> approach and spirit as used to derive c3, i.e. scaling the Be-10
>>>>>>>> serie linearly with a given Maunder Minimum reduction. The
>>>>>>>> impact of the 11-yr solar cycle can be looked at in the original
>>>>>>>> Lean-AR4 serie.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I hope this help.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> With kind regards,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Fortunat
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Eva Bauer wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Dear Jonathan, dear Fortunat:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Happy New Year!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Stefan, Anders and me just have discussed how to set up our
>>>>>>>>> CLIMBER2/3alpha runs, to produce something useful for the IPCC WGI
>>>>>>>>> chapter 6. This chapter appears to touch the impact on the NH
>>>>>>>>> temperature related to low and high solar forcing.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> For a reasonable comparison, we think two 1000-year simulations
>>>>>>>>> differing only by a low and a high solar forcing, conducted
>>>>>>>>> with both
>>>>>>>>> CLIMBER models, would be ideal. To do so, we would have to
>>>>>>>>> extend the
>>>>>>>>> solar forcing time series based on Lean (GRL, 2000) and on Wang et
>>>>>>>>> al. (2005) distributed in previous e-mails back to the year
>>>>>>>>> 1000. This
>>>>>>>>> would require some splicing as was done, for instance, by Crowley.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I'm thinking of some scaling applied to a series of Crowley
>>>>>>>>> (say the
>>>>>>>>> data called Be10/Lean splice in Science, 2000) such that the
>>>>>>>>> amplitude
>>>>>>>>> of the solar variability from the 11-year cycle is conserved after
>>>>>>>>> ~1720. I have to check but it appears that the variation in the
>>>>>>>>> TSI
>>>>>>>>> due to the 11-year cycle contained in the Crowley series agrees
>>>>>>>>> perfectly with the 11yr-cycle data in the file based on Lean
>>>>>>>>> (2000).
>>>>>>>>> Before starting such an exercise I like to ask you what you think
>>>>>>>>> about. We would be happy to receive your response quite soon to be
>>>>>>>>> able to finish the calculations with our slow model in time for
>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>> IPCC report.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Could you please also comment on the other forcings we should
>>>>>>>>> include,
>>>>>>>>> namely the volcanic forcing and the CO2 forcing. For the
>>>>>>>>> present study
>>>>>>>>> we suggest to use the forcing as in Bauer et al (2000) but
>>>>>>>>> omitting
>>>>>>>>> the land-use. This means, using the volcanic forcing from Crowley,
>>>>>>>>> 2000 and the CO2 forcing based on Etheridge et al 1996 and
>>>>>>>>> Keeling and
>>>>>>>>> Whorf, 1996. (If you wish we can distribute these data series.)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Also, thinking beyond the IPCC study, the model results may become
>>>>>>>>> interesting enough to be discussed in a 3-model comparison study!?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Looking forward to your reply.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Best wishes
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Eva
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Climate and Environmental Physics,
>>>>>>>> Physics Institute, University of Bern
>>>>>>>> Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern
>>>>>>>> Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42
>>>>>>>> Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Last Millennium Simulations for IPCC AR4 WG1 Chap 6
>>>>> ---------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>> F. Joos,
>>>>> joos@climate.unibe.ch
>>>>> 18 Januar 2006
>>>>>
>>>>> OVERVIEW
>>>>> --------
>>>>>
>>>>> A total of 7 simulations is planned.
>>>>> A control simulation without any forcing
>>>>>
>>>>> Two millennium-long simulations with solar forcing following Bard
>>>>> et al. with a Maunder Minimum reduction of 0.08 and 0.25 percent in
>>>>> total irradiance and volcanic and anthropogenic forcing included
>>>>> A simulation from 1610 to 1998 with solar forcing from Wang et al,
>>>>> 2005 and volcanic and anthropogenic forcing included
>>>>>
>>>>> Three simulations from 1765 to 1998 with only solar and volcanic
>>>>> forcing included, but no anthropogenic forcings. These are branches
>>>>> from the above three simulation.
>>>>>
>>>>> A range of input data files have been prepeared. Each contains a
>>>>> header with additional descriptions of the data.
>>>>> Solar irradiance has been taken from Bard et al., Tellus, 1999 and
>>>>> from Wang, Lean, Shirley, JAp, 2005.
>>>>>
>>>>> It is estimated that the Maunder Minimum irradiance is reduce by
>>>>> 0.08 percent
>>>>> relative to today and that the present irradiance is 1366 W/m2 from
>>>>> the Wang et al. data.
>>>>>
>>>>> A case with a Maunder Minimum reduction of 0.08 percent is
>>>>> calculated from the Bard et al. data by scaling the original Bard
>>>>> series appropriately.
>>>>> The original Bard series are offset by 1.3 W/m2 in irradiance to
>>>>> bring them to a present irradiance of 1366 W/m2. For this excercise
>>>>> we will utilize a Maunder
>>>>> Minimum reduction in irradiance relative to today of 0.08 percent
>>>>> and of 0.25 percent (other cases with high MM reduction are
>>>>> included in the files).
>>>>>
>>>>> Irradiance has been converted to radiative forcing: RF=
>>>>> (IRR-1366)/4*0.7
>>>>> Volcanic forcing is from Crowley Science, 2000, with albedo
>>>>> factored in (e.g. as for solar forcing). To avoid a cold start of
>>>>> the model, the serie is extended to 850 AD by mirroring the Crowley
>>>>> data from 1001 to 1150 to the period 850 to 1000.
>>>>> NonCO2 forcing is following TAR (updated for an error in tropo O3
>>>>> in the TAR).
>>>>> CO2 is a spline through the Etheridge, JGR, 97 data and the
>>>>> Siegenthaler, TEllus, 2005 data.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> INPUT FILES DESCRIPTION:
>>>>> -----------------------
>>>>>
>>>>> It is recommended to linearly interpolate between data points.
>>>>>
>>>>> A1: Solar irradiance and radiative forcing following Bard from 850
>>>>> to 2000
>>>>> (Tag description)
>>>>> solBard08 2. col: Maunder Minimum reduction of 0.08 percent
>>>>> solBard25 3. col: Maunder Minimu reduction of 0.25 percent
>>>>>
>>>>> Note: data from Bard have been linearlz interplated on an annual
>>>>> time step
>>>>> files:
>>>>> bard00tel_solar_RF_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>> bard00tel_solar_irradiance_offset-13_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> A2: Solar irradiance and radiative forcing following Wang, Lean,
>>>>> Shirley, 2005
>>>>> from 1610 to 2004 annual resolution
>>>>> Tag: WLS-05
>>>>>
>>>>> files:
>>>>> wang05jastr_lean_RF_IPCC_chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>> wang05jastr_lean_irradiance_IPCC_chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>>
>>>>> A3: CO2 concentration in ppm from 850 to 2000
>>>>>
>>>>> annual resolution
>>>>> Tag: CO2
>>>>> file: co2_850-2000_splined_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>>
>>>>> A4: volcanic forcing after Crowley from 1001 to 1998 AD, extended
>>>>> by artificial
>>>>> data from 850 to 1000 AD by mirroring the forcing from 1000 to
>>>>> 1150 to the period 850 to 1000
>>>>> Tag: volcCrow
>>>>>
>>>>> annual resolution
>>>>> file: crowley00sci_RFvolcanic_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan05.out
>>>>>
>>>>> A5: radiative forcing by non-CO2 agents
>>>>> annual resolution
>>>>> Tag: nonco2
>>>>>
>>>>> files
>>>>> rf_nonco2_1yr_1765_2000_individ_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>> rf_nonco2_1yr_850_2000_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> B) SIMULATIONS
>>>>> -----------------------
>>>>>
>>>>> B1. 2 Long simulations from 850 AD to 1998
>>>>>
>>>>> -------
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B1.1. tag: bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_850-1998
>>>>>
>>>>> Solar forcing from Bard et al. with MM reduction of 0.08 percent,
>>>>> volcanic forcing and forcing from CO2 and other anthropogenic
>>>>> (non-CO2) agents.
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation 850 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: model spinup for year 850 (or similiar)
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 1001 AD to 1998 AD
>>>>> start-up period: 850 to 1000 with artificial volcanic data
>>>>>
>>>>> --------
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B1.2 tag: bard25_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_850-1998
>>>>>
>>>>> as B1.1 but with solar forcing from Bard et al. reduced by 0.25
>>>>> percent for the Maunder Minimum.
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation 850 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: model spinup for year 850 (or similiar)
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 1001 AD to 1998 AD
>>>>> start-up period: 850 to 1000 with artificial volcanic data
>>>>>
>>>>> --------
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B2: A simulation from 1610 to 1998 restarted from
>>>>> bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2
>>>>>
>>>>> With solar forcing from Wang et al., 2005, volcanic forci
>>>>> ng and forcing from CO2 and other anthropogenic (non-CO2) agents.
>>>>>
>>>>> B2 tag: WLS-2005_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_1610-1998
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation: 1610 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B1.1.
>>>>> bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2
>>>>> at year 1610
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 1610 AD to 1998 AD
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -------
>>>>>
>>>>> B3: 3 Simulations from 1765 to 1998 with natural forcing only
>>>>>
>>>>> non-CO2 radiative forcing is kept to zero (except
>>>>> for volcanoes and solar)
>>>>>
>>>>> CO2 is kept at its 1765 value.
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B3.1: tag bard08_volcCrow_1765_1998
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation: 1765 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B1.1.
>>>>> bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2
>>>>> at year 1765
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 1765 to 1998 AD
>>>>>
>>>>> -------
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B3.2: tag bard25_volcCrow_1765_1998
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation: 1765 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B1.2.
>>>>> bard25_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2
>>>>> at year 1765
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 1765 to 1998 AD
>>>>>
>>>>> -----
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B3.1: tag WLS-2005_volcCrow_1765_1998
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation: 1765 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B2.
>>>>> WLS-2005_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2
>>>>> at year 1765
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 1765 to 1998 AD
>>>>>
>>>>> -------
>>>>>
>>>>> Simulation B4: tag ctrl_850-1998
>>>>>
>>>>> Control simulation without any forcing
>>>>>
>>>>> Start of simulation 850 AD
>>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD
>>>>> initial condition: model spinup for year 850 (or similiar)
>>>>>
>>>>> Analysis period: 850 to 1998
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> OUTPUT
>>>>> ------
>>>>>
>>>>> I guess minimal output is global and NH mean surface temperature.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Anders Levermann
>>>> phone: +49-331-288-2560 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
>>>> fax: +49-331-288-2570 Telegraphenberg A26, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
>>>> anders.levermann@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~anders
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>
>>> Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>
>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>> University of Arizona
>>> Tucson, AZ 85721
>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:modelsE.gif (GIFf/�IC�) (00113719)
>> Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:modelsE.pdf (PDF /�IC�) (0011371A)
>> Dr Timothy J Osborn
>> Climatic Research Unit
>> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>> Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
>>
>> e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>> phone: +44 1603 592089
>> fax: +44 1603 507784
>> web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
>> sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
>
>
>

--

Climate and Environmental Physics,
Physics Institute, University of Bern
Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern
Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42
Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/

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