Monday, December 19, 2011

1139607804.txt

From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
Subject: Re: some figures at last!
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 16:43:24 -0700
Cc: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>

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Hi Tim - it is a wonderful figure, and we are
writing about a paper's worth about it - very
condensed stuff, but loaded with impact.

Let's see what Keith and Eystein suggest, but I'm
happy w/ the fig and ref period you've used.
Would rather have you working on more award
winning figs than updating this one. Can do that
later depending on feedback the SOD gets.

Well done, thx, peck

>Glad you like it. Regarding the positive radiative forcing, the volcano
>series (smoothed and spikey) were expressed as anomalies from the
>1500-1899 mean, as were all other data in all panels of this figure. I
>can provide the entire figure expressed as anomalies from their 1961-1990
>mean on Monday, but the volcanic forcing will again have +ve and -ve
>values because the 1961-1990 mean has some volcanic events during it.
>
>We could set maxima of each volcanic series to zero. But I like to think
>of it in this way: positive volcanic forcing *can* occur durings periods
>with *less* volcanic activity than "normal", where "normal" is defined as
>the mean volcanic activity during the refernce period (this is partly why
>we prefer the longer 1500-1899 reference than the shorter 1961-1990
>reference, because a 30-year reference period can't really be
>representative for a sporadic forcing like volcanoes). So, while I'm
>personnally comfortable with both positive and negative volcanic forcing
>values, I'm happy to shift them to peak at zero during quiescent periods.
>Just let me know... and Keith/Eystein?
>
>I can't believe how much info there is in this figure now. We could write
>an entire paper on the construction of this one diagram!
>
>Cheers
>
>Tim
>
>On Fri, February 10, 2006 10:33 pm, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>> Hi Tim - nice service, thanks! This will help
>> with the diplomacy, since Susan did want to see
>> these data. Also, maybe we'll get a prize for the
>> most information backed figure in the AR4?
>>
>> I like it, and I don't think it's too
>> distracting. How did you decide to put the
>> baseline where you did? And how do we get
>> positive volcanic radiative forcing? Why not
>> bottom out all the raw and smoothed curves at
>> zero? Suspect you have a good reason, but thought
>> I'd check.
>>
>> I think I know have all the figs I'm supposed to
>> have for transmission to TSU for TS
>> consideration, and they all look good. Not that
>> they are all finished, but that's ok for this
>> fine day.
>>
>> Thanks again, Peck
>>
>>>Hi again Peck,
>>>
>>>sorry, forgot about the raw volcanic series. Originally I had it as a
>>>separate panel - yes! yet another panel! - but then I tried underlaying
>>> it
>>>on the smoothed series in a pale grey. Please see attached files (pdf
>>> and
>>>gif of the model/forcing figure). What do you think? Is it too
>>>distracting to have these grey spikes? Also note that they are on the
>>>same scale as the rest of the forcings and unfortunately some spikes are
>>>truncated at the bottom of the forcings panel - especially 1259 event.
>>>This particular series I've used is from Ammann and you can see the link
>>>between the spikes and the smoothed green-colour volcanic curve.
>>>
>>>Finally, note that this is just panels A-D. If you like this version,
>>>then you can insert it into the Word file I sent before, in place of
>>>panels A-D (use the gif file for this purpose). You'll see that panel E
>>>is a separate piece of figure, and can stay unchanged in the Word file.
>>>Hope you follow this bit.
>>>
>>>PS. Keith hasn't seen this version - not sure what his views are on the
>>>distraction of the grey spikes!
>>>
>>>Must go now,
>>>
>>>Tim
>>>
>>>
>>>On Fri, February 10, 2006 7:40 pm, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>> Hi Tim - see prev email regarding this fig. I do
>>>> like it, and I'll get feedback fast from
>>>> Susan/Martin.
>>>>
>>>> What happened to the more raw volcanic series?
>>>> Susan really wants this, but I'm not sure how to
>>>> best provide. Could we include at the top of the
>>>> forcing fig - underneath the smoothed volc
> >>> forcing curves?
>>>>
>>>> If Keith is doing all the text revision, I guess
>>>> the next fig job would be to try to create the
>>>> new hybid MWP fig - the old FOD concept merged
>>>> with (new panel or just right below?) the curve
>>>> from your just-out Science paper (which is great,
>>>> by the way).
>>>>
>>>> Thanks again for getting these by today - it's a huge help.
>>>>
>>>> best, peck
>>>>
>>>>>Dear Peck and Eystein,
>>>>>
>>>>>proxy location maps are half done! I've
>>>>>attached what I have. Do not use this for real
>>>>>because they are not correct!!!
>>>>>
>>>>>I've done them for 1000, 1500 and 1750. They include:
>>>>>
>>>>>boreholes (circles) and this is correct for all 3 times.
>>>>>
>>>>>schweingruber tree-ring density/width network as used by briffa and
>>>>> this
>>>>>is correct for all 3 times (triangles)
>>>>>
>>>>>esper tree-ring data is also correct for all 3 times (also triangles)
>>>>>
>>>>>squares are a few selected records from Mann et
>>>>>al. (1998) and although they are in the correct
>>>>>locations, they are a strange subset and they
>>>>>also currently appear in all three panels EVEN
>>>>>THOUGH ACTUALLY SOME OF THESE ARE SHORTER AND
>>>>>SHOULD DROP OUT OF THE EARLIER PANELS. I can
>>>>>fix this soon but not yet.
>>>>>
>>>>>I can add extra locations from Mann et al., Mann
>>>>>and Jones, Crowley etc. It's a little time
>>>>>consuming but not too bad.
>>>>>
>>>>>I can also change symbols and colour etc. pretty easily.
>>>>>
>>>>>What is harder to do is to change the years for
>>>>>which we want the subsets. So I really need to
>>>>>be told what years to do - here I've done 1000,
>>>>>1500 and 1750. We need to pin down exactly what
>>>>>you want before I do more on this. And please
>>>>>don't tell me to try loads of different ones and
>>>>>show them all to you before deciding - that
>>>>>won't help me! I wasn't sure if you wanted the
>>>>>whole globe or just NH, but thought whole globe
>>>>>looked good. Also did you want pre-1000, e.g.
>>> >>AD 500 coverage?
>>>>>
>>>>>Hope this is ok as a "placeholder"
>>>>>
>>>>>Cheers
>>>>>
>>>>>Tim
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Cheers
>>>>>
>>>>>Tim
>>>>>
>>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:proxylocations.pdf (PDF /�IC�)
>>>>> (00112850)
>>>>>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>>>>>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
>>>>>
>>>>>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>>>>>phone: +44 1603 592089
>>>>>fax: +44 1603 507784
>>>>>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
>>>>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>>
>>>> Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>>
>>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>> University of Arizona
>>>> Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>>>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:modelsA-D.gif (GIFf/�IC�) (00112AB2)
>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:modelsA-D.pdf (PDF /�IC�) (00112AB3)
>>
>>
>> --
>> Jonathan T. Overpeck
>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>> Professor, Department of Geosciences
>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>
>> Mail and Fedex Address:
>>
>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>> University of Arizona
>> Tucson, AZ 85721
>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>> fax: +1 520 792-8795
>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>>


--
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
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