Monday, December 19, 2011

1139006752.txt

From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
To: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>
Subject: Re: Fwd: new fig
Date: Fri Feb 3 17:45:52 2006

Eystein
can you also check that Fortunat is addressing the few comments (ie revising the text) that
relate to his bit of my section and Henry Pollack is helping us to asses the comments and
revise the text to do with the Ground Surface Temperature section. I presume Ricardo and
Peck are dealing with all the regional stuff. Thanks
At 17:32 03/02/2006, you wrote:

Hi,
I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times.
Cheers,
Eystein

thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel .
Keith
At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:

Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new figure is quite compelling, and a nice
complement to the other two panels. I agree it would be good to get the Northern Hem
Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him well enough to ask? (I never even met him, but
could ask if you don't know him).
What you have created will take some good work on the caption to explain, but it has my
vote.
What is your plan for dealing with the new German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are
you sure these runs can't be worked in, perhaps as a new panel? At least we have Susan's
support for the new runs, so we do what we have to do.
As for work and time, we are running out. Just do the best you can, and hopefully the
new section will emerge sometime next week.
Highest priority (please do first) - we need 3 TS-contender figures (and captions) by
early next week:
1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption
2) the fig you've attached to this email - with caption (were we going to try to put all
the model runs/refs/color key into a table, so the caption could be shorter than in the
FOD? Think this would be better, so caption is shorter)
3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model runs (update of the fig we showed for
first time in ChCh - using a version of the lower panel you attached to this email -
with caption
There is little doubt you guys have the hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and
possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work will have huge impact, and the extra effort is
really appreciated well beyond me and Eystein. I wish we could offer up a time machine
to make it easier, but... just keep plugging.
thanks! Peck

Peck and Eystein
we are having trouble to express the real message of the reconstructions - being
scientifically sound in representing uncertainty , while still getting the crux of the
information across clearly. It is not right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing this
merely in an arbitrary way (and as a total range as before) allows the uncertainty to
swamp the magnitude of the changes through time . We have settled on this version
(attached) of the Figure which we hoe you will agree gets the message over but with the
rigor required for such an important document.
We have added a box to show the "probability surface" for the most likely estimate of
past temperatures based on all published data. By overlapping all reconstructions and
giving a score of 2 to all areas within the 1 standard error range of the estimates for
each reconstruction , and a score of 1 for the area between 1 and 2 standard errors, you
build up a composite picture of the most likely or "concensus" path that temperatures
took over the last 1200 years (note - now with a linear time axis). This still shows the
outlier ranges , preserving all the information, but you see the central most likely
area well , and the comparison of past and recent temperature levels is not as
influenced by the outlier estimates. What do you think? We have experimented with
different versions of the shading and this one shows up quite well - but we may have to
use some all grey version as the background to the overlay of the model results.
We have also experimented with changing the normalisation base for the
model/reconstruction Figure , but using the same short modern period as for the first
Figure is not satisfactory - more on this later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as
many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL curve - can you get the separate North and
Southern Hemisphere curves (with uncertainty) . I do not see that the new model runs
from Germany/Switzerland will fit easily in the existing Figure and need to be separate!
I am really struggling with the text also - really need more time!!!! More later
Keith

X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16
Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000
To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: new fig
Dr Timothy J Osborn
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
phone: +44 1603 592089
fax: +44 1603 507784
web: [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
sunclock: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /�IC�) (0010B41B)

--
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
[4]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
[5]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

--
______________________________________________________________
Eystein Jansen
Professor/Director
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
All�gaten 55
N-5007 Bergen
NORWAY
e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661
Fax: +47-55-584330

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

References

1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
4. http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
5. http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
7. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

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