Monday, December 19, 2011

1138042050.txt

From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>
Subject: Re: Fwd: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues
Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 13:47:30 -0700
Cc: "Wahl, Eugene R" <wahle@alfred.edu>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

Hi all - I'm betting that "provisional acceptance" is not good enough for inclusion in the
Second Order draft, but based on what Gene has said, he should have formal acceptance soon
- we really need that. Can you give us a read on when you'll have it Gene? Best make this a
top priority, or we'll have to leave your important work out of the chapter. Many thanks!!
Peck

Hi Peck, I assume a provisional acceptance is OK by IPCC rules? The timing of these
matters are being followed closely by McIntyre (see:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=503) and we cannot afford to being caught doing anything
that is not within the regulations. Thus need to consult with martin and Susan on this
(see also last mail from Melinda).

Cheers,

Eystein

Thanks Gene - it is worth all the effort, and please keep us (especially Keith) posted
on the updates.

best, peck

X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2
Subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues
Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 21:17:03 -0500

Thread-Topic: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues
Thread-Index: AcWBF2jTf69xJLFkThuHZzU6qK8tMx+kOAJUB28NG2A=

From: "Wahl, Eugene R" <wahle@alfred.edu>
To: "Jonathan Overpeck" <jto@u.arizona.edu>

Hello Jonathan and Keith:

I'm not sure that I ever sent you the updated Wahl-Ammann paper that was the basis for
Steve's provisional acceptance. Here it is. As is, it contains a long appendix (# 1)
on issues with interannual statistics of merit for validation, which was not in the
version I had sent you earlier in the year. All the main results and conclusions are
the same.

Caspar and I are also now responding to Steve's final requests, based on independent
re-review. This is primarily to address publishing Pearson's r^2 and CE calculations
for verification, which Steve and the reviewer reason should be done to get the
conversation off the topic of us choosing not to report these measures, and onto the
science itself. We explain thoroughly in the appendix I mention above why we feel these
(and other interannual-only) measures of merit are not of much use for verification in
the MBH context, so that the fact we are reporting them is contextualized appropriately.
IN FACT, we will be going farther than that and will be bringing this material
currently in an appendix into the main text, based on the reasoning below(quoted from
another message)

Caspar mentioned yesterday that he talked with Susan Solomon about this paper, and she
did not see the appendix we had added concerning the issues about Pearson's r^2 etc.
Based on this she therefore thought our text was weak in this area in relation to
McIntyre's criticisms. Caspar thought, and I agree, that we need to bring this stuff
OUT of the appendix and get it INTO the methods section, so that it won't be so easily
missed!! We are working on this--which will include other material as well in the text
proper.

Also, we are going ahead with an even further-expanded discussion on the issues with
r^2, which itself will probably become an appendix in the final text (it had been slated
for publication as supplemental web-site material). This expanded discussion will go
into additional reasoning (with graphics) concerning the basis for r^2 not being useful
in this context. It will give a vector space analysis of the issues, and explicit
visual demonstration of how these issues with r^2 play out in terms of false negative
and false positive errors in validation.

Let me know if I can be of any further help in all this. Apologies if this message
seems long. I did my best to keep it short, but I'm a bit tired and it is hard to edit
well in that state!

Peace, Gene

*******************************

Dr. Eugene R. Wahl

Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies

Alfred University

1 Saxon Drive

Alfred NY, 14802

607.871.2604


___________________________________________________________________________________

From: Wahl, Eugene R
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 12:55 AM
To: Jonathan Overpeck

Cc: Keith Briffa; ammann@ucar.edu
Subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues

Hello Jonathan:

1) I want you to know that we heard from Steve Schneider today that our paper with
Climatic Change has been provisionally accepted for publication. The provisions Steve
outlined are ones we fully accept and will implement (extra statistics of merit and
remaking of graphics), so this paper can be viewed as accepted, I should think.

Caspar and I are getting right on it. We wanted you to know this ASAP.

2) The Ammann-Wahl GRL comment on the MM GRL paper from early 2005 is being sent for
final review along with a response by MM that GRL is soliciting. We had thought, based
on info from James Famiglietti (editor), that this article had been accepted and the
response from MM was just being sought. We did not realize that the entire package of
comment and response would be put through a final review. We just heard about this last
Friday. Sorry that we had that one mistaken.

Hope you are well. Best wishes on IPCC work.

Peace, Gene

Dr. Eugene R. Wahl

Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies

Alfred University

607-871-2604

1 Saxon Drive

Alfred, NY 14802

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--

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

Attachment converted: Nebbiolo:Wahl_Ammann_3321_revised.doc (WDBN/�IC�) (009EB84C)

--

______________________________________________________________
Eystein Jansen
Professor/Director
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
All�gaten 55
N-5007 Bergen
NORWAY
e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661
Fax: +47-55-584330

--

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

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