Sunday, December 18, 2011

1132094873.txt

From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
To: mann@psu.edu, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: heads up...
Date: Tue Nov 15 17:47:53 2005
Cc: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

Mike
thanks for this. When time allows we will do a response to this poster and simply post it
on our web page. As others have said , the dating of the chronology in the Urals is not
wrong - but the magnitude of the extreme years in the early Urals reconstruction were not
adjusted to account for inflated variance related to low chronology replication - so they
are sort of right that the emphasis on 1032 is probably overdone.
Anyway thanks again
Keith
At 15:29 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:

Thanks Tim, Phil
yes, I never had any doubt he's wrong. In fact he's been wrong about just about every
claim he's ever made. He almost had a point w/ the PCA centering, but as we all know,
that doesn't matter at all in the end. The issue isn't whether or not he's right, as we
all well know by now, but whether his false assertions have enough superficial
plausability to get traction. In this case, they might, so probably good to at least be
prepared.
I was told by a journalist Paul Thacker that his poster got prominent placement,
probably not an accident (see forwarded email). I believe that Mike Schlesinger and
David Karoly were there in the same session, so might be worth checking w/ them. I think
Connie Woodhouse and Tom Wigley were also at the meeting, but not sure...
I suspect that this is the first in a line of attacks (I'm sure Tom C is next in line)
that will ultimately get "published" one way or another. The GRL leak may have been
plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership there, but these guys always have "Climate
Research" and "Energy and Environment", and will go there if necessary.
They are telegraphing quite clearly where they are going w/ all of this...
Mike
Tim Osborn wrote:

Thanks for this Mike. We'd spotted an earlier draft of his poster and were a bit
concerned about this receiving prominence at the meeting.
Did it arouse much discussion, do you know? Keith and Tom Melvin looked into the dating
a while back when McIntyre first raised it and were quite satisfied with the published
dating I think. Not sure what should be done - unless he submits something for
peer-review. Cheers, Tim
At 14:53 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:

not sure if you guys are aware, McIntyre presented this poster at the CCSP meeting.
Apparently, they gave him a very prominent location, so that everyone entering the
meeting would have seen the poster...
mike
can find at:
<[1]http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm>http://www.climatesc
ience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm
P-GC1.4
More on Hockey Sticks: The Case of Jones et al. [1998]
Stephen McIntyre, <[2]mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca>stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca
Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have been applied by
policymakers, but they have received remarkably little independent critical analysis.
Jones et al. [1998] is a prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC [2001] and others to
affirm the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. [1998].
However, the reconstruction of Jones et al. [1998] is based on only 3-4 proxies in the
controversial Medieval Warm Period, including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al.
[1992] and Briffa et al [1995]. We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al
[1992] fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in replication and
crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. [1995] that 1032 was the "coldest year" of
the millennium proves to be based on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores,
of which at least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an ad hoc
adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al [1992] cannot be justified. The
individual and combined impact of defects in the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask
adjustments on the reconstruction of Jones et al [1998] is substantial and can be seen
to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a pronounced Medieval Warm
Period in the proxy reconstruction. Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and
Tornetrask data sets, pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias
will also be discussed.
--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email:
<[3]mailto:mann@psu.edu>mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
<[4]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm>[5]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/
mann.htm

Dr Timothy J Osborn
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
phone: +44 1603 592089
fax: +44 1603 507784
web: [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
sunclock: [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
[8]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

References

1. http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm%3Ehttp://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm
2. mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca
3. mailto:mann@psu.edu%3Emann@psu.edu
4. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
5. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
7. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
8. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
9. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

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