Monday, December 12, 2011


From: Irina Fast <>
To: Tim Osborn <>, Keith Briffa <>
Subject: COLD season T reconstruction
Date: Tue, 30 Sep 2003 14:24:57 +0200

Hi Tim, hi Keith,

attached you can find my reconstruction of the cold season temperature
anomalies. I have retained the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th EOFs for the whole time
span (1500-1976). It seems to be a rather strange choice, but if I retain the
1st and/or 2nd EOFs the reconstructed T anomalies for Northern Europe are too
large in comparison to observed anomalies.
You will see that calibration/verification skills are miserable. But it puts
my mind to rest, if you say, that this is an expected result.

Last week you wrote :
>Please let us (me and Keith) know if you are happy with your implementation
>of the Mann et al. method. I remember that you had some strange results
>when you applied it to the model simulations - did you solve those
>problems? We might be able to help or provide advice if you still have
>problems with the method.
The problems I mentioned at the meeting in France arose if I applied my
implementation of the method to the INSTRUMENTAL data and I tried to explain
this effect through the gaps in the data. In the meantime I was able to
eliminate to some degree this problem through the use of other fortran
compiler and numeric library. I will prepare an slide with assesment of the
performance of the current method implementation for "perfect proxy data"
(i.e. instrumental data as proxy data).

And now some words to agenda
1) Antje Weisheimer will say initial greeting words and make all
organisational announcments.
2) As you know, Ulrich take part in the analysis of the simulations performed
with ECHO-G by GKSS group. I am not sure, but maybe he will also present his
ideas for further (in framework of SO&P reasonable) simulations, that can be
conducted by FUB.

For the presentations both OHP and data projector are available.

Best redards
Irina Fast
Freie Universit�t Berlin
Institut f�r Meteorologie
Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10
D-12165 Berlin

phone: +49 (0)30 838 712 21 fax: +49 (0)30 838 711 60

Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\rectemp_October-March1.dat"

Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\rectemp_regave_October-March1.dat"

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