Monday, December 12, 2011


From: "Michael E. Mann" <>
To: Phil Jones <>
Subject: Re: Something for the weekend !
Date: Fri, 05 Sep 2003 13:34:53 -0400
Cc: Keith Briffa <>,

sorry phil, one more relevant item. I've cc'd in Keith on this, since you had mentioned
that you had discussed the issue w/ him.
This is from Dave Meko's (quite nice!) statistics lecture notes:
See page 2, section 8.1.
He provides two (in reality, as I mentioned before, there are really 3!) basic boundary
constraints on a smooth (ie, in "filtering"). The first method he refers to is what I
called the "minimum norm" constraint (assuming the long-term mean beyond the boundary).
The second, which he calls "reflecting the data across the endpoints", is the constraint I
have been employing which, again, is mathematically equivalent to insuring a point of
inflection at the boundary. This is the preferable constraint for non-stationary mean
processes, and we are, I assert, on very solid ground (preferable ground in fact) in
employing this boundary constraint for series with trends...
At 05:20 PM 9/5/2003 +0100, Phil Jones wrote:


Attached some more plots.
1. Figure 7 - Forcing. Guess this is it. Could cut the y scale to -6 and say in
caption that
1258 or 1259 is the only event to go beyond this, then give value in caption. Scale
will then widen out. OK to do ? Caspar's solar now there.
2. Fig 2a - first go at coverage. This is % coverage over 1856-2002 from HadCRUT2v.
3. Fig 4 again. Moved legends and reduced scale. Talked to Keith and we both think
the linear trend padding will get criticised. Did you use this in GRL and or Fig 5 for
with Scott. If so we need to explain it.
On this plot all the series are in different units, so normalised over 1751-1950 (or
equiv for
decades) then smoothed. Again here I can reduce scale further and Law Dome can go
out of the plot. Thoughts ? Think all should be same scale.
Have got GKSS model runs for Fig 8. Were you happy Hans' conditions. If so I'll send
Next week I only have Fig 2b to do. This will be annual plot of NH, Europe and CET,
smoothed in some way.
For the SOI I and Tim reckon that it won't work showing this at interannual
timescale with
3 plots. It will then not be like the NAO plot.
Thoughts on colours as well.
Have a good weekend. Logging off once this has gone.
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
e-mail: Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137



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