Sunday, December 11, 2011


From: Tim Osborn <>
To: "Michael E. Mann" <>
Subject: Re: reconstruction errors
Date: Fri Aug 1 14:24:35 2003

Thanks very much for helping me out with this Mike. Rest assured that the data won't be
passed on to anyone else. I'll let you know if I use them to compute uncertainties at
different time scales.
At 16:18 31/07/2003, you wrote:

Attached are the calibration residual series for experiments based on available networks
back to:
AD 1000
AD 1400
AD 1600
I can't find the one for the network back to 1820! But basically, you'll see that the
residuals are pretty red for the first 2 cases, and then not significantly red for the
3rd case--its even a bit better for the AD 1700 and 1820 cases, but I can't seem to dig
them up. In any case, the incremental changes are modest after 1600--its pretty clear
that key predictors drop out before AD 1600, hence the redness of the residuals, and the
notably larger uncertainties farther back...
You only want to look at the first column (year) and second column (residual) of the
files. I can't even remember what the other columns are!
Let me know if that helps. Thanks,
p.s. I know I probably don't need to mention this, but just to insure absolutely clarify
on this, I'm providing these for your own personal use, since you're a trusted
colleague. So please don't pass this along to others without checking w/ me first. This
is the sort of "dirty laundry" one doesn't want to fall into the hands of those who
might potentially try to distort things...

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